TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Rene Kowal vs David Sarganek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711411––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRene Kowal above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 51 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Rene Kowal at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 27–27 David Sarganek Dead even across their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kowal beat Sarganek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:59What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-27 in 54
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1677 vs Sarganek 1652
Kowal
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 80% vs Sarganek 60%
Kowal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 70% vs Sarganek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal +2 · Sarganek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kowal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 2.20 / Sarganek 1.61
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kowal)+11.7pp
TT Cup · #13213519
Kowal2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 34 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Sarganek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 42 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowal5wins
AwaySarganek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal71.4%5 of 7
AwaySarganek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal7Sarganek3n = 10Kowal took 7 of 10
S2Kowal5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowal7Sarganek3n = 10Kowal took 7 of 10
S4Kowal1Sarganek4n = 5Sarganek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalSarganekK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.631.7+1.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 302 vs 264 / 50651%52.2%154 / 302 vs 264 / 506Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalKowal 2.20/Sarganek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 18:40R. Kowal3911413113D. Sarganek366111181
WSep 23 · 21:05R. Kowal341211113D. Sarganek2110560
LSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal25115811D. Sarganek3741111113
LSep 21 · 18:10R. Kowal491511111022D. Sarganek49172712113
WSep 19 · 21:15R. Kowal341111123D. Sarganek2486100
LSep 19 · 18:10R. Kowal361351081D. Sarganek45111112113
WSep 15 · 21:13R. Kowal331111113D. Sarganek196760
LSep 15 · 20:15R. Kowal227690D. Sarganek331111113
WSep 9 · 20:15R. Kowal331111113D. Sarganek185850
LAug 4 · 15:40R. Kowal31591161D. Sarganek3511112113
R. Kowal10
WSep 28 · 19:40R. Kowal1.73411115113A. Baros2.0011361172WSep 28 · 18:40R. Kowal1.9111413113D. Sarganek1.806111181LSep 28 · 17:40R. Kowal1.807560P. Vicherek1.911111113WSep 23 · 21:05R. Kowal1.911211113D. Sarganek1.8010560WSep 23 · 20:10A. Baros2.006930R. Kowal1.731111113LSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal1.91115811D. Sarganek1.8041111113WSep 23 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.91114151R. Kowal1.8081111113LSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550WSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 28 · 20:10D. Sarganek1.731111113P. Vicherek2.008870LSep 28 · 18:40R. Kowal1.9111413113D. Sarganek1.806111181WSep 28 · 18:10A. Baros2.2511961162D. Sarganek1.57711113113LSep 23 · 21:05R. Kowal1.911211113D. Sarganek1.8010560WSep 23 · 19:40P. Vicherek2.00119231D. Sarganek1.7391111113WSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal1.91115811D. Sarganek1.8041111113LSep 23 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.571771110102A. Baros2.251511812123LSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631WSep 23 · 14:40D. Sarganek1.831112113J. Skvrna1.8331080
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