TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Trnka vs David Hons 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111171171416114
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 14-16
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 101 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 12–9 David Hons David Hons has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Trnka beat Hons 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Trnka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Trnka
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1598 vs Hons 1514
Trnka
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 40% vs Hons 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 50% vs Hons 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka -2 · Hons -3
Hons
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.61 / Hons 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trnka)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13211039
Trnka1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 61 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Hons2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 62 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrnka8wins
AwayHons2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTrnka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka85.7%6 of 7
AwayHons33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka7Hons3n = 10Trnka took 7 of 10
S2Trnka7Hons3n = 10Trnka took 7 of 10
S3Trnka7Hons3n = 10Trnka took 7 of 10
S4Trnka4Hons1n = 5Trnka took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrnkaHonsT − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.631.5+8.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 285 vs 272 / 53851.6%50.6%147 / 285 vs 272 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaTrnka 1.61/Hons 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 13:05T. Trnka569111114113D. Hons4511771642
WSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka4211119113D. Hons30751171
WJul 18 · 21:35T. Trnka331111113D. Hons269890
LJul 18 · 19:05T. Trnka521110101292D. Hons538121210113
LJul 9 · 18:35T. Trnka2891090D. Hons341112113
WJul 7 · 19:05T. Trnka331111113D. Hons148330
WJun 27 · 14:35T. Trnka351111133D. Hons2568110
WJun 9 · 17:05T. Trnka4491212113D. Hons4011101091
WJun 9 · 16:35T. Trnka331111113D. Hons217770
WMay 26 · 20:05T. Trnka4011711113D. Hons27811351
T. Trnka10
LSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113LSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka1.6711119113D. Hons2.10751171WSep 24 · 09:05T. Trnka1.33111111113O. Pros3.25613321LSep 24 · 08:05T. Trnka1.44711581P. Chvatal2.6311511113LSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113WSep 24 · 06:05T. Trnka1.531111113O. Pros2.388790LSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:35T. Trnka2.1011811113J. Ruzicka1.67911181WSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113
D. Hons10
LSep 28 · 12:35M. Flesar2.751111123D. Hons1.4042100LSep 28 · 11:35D. Hons2.20116671J. Ruzicka1.6141111113LSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka1.6711119113D. Hons2.10751171WSep 27 · 21:33P. Zivny1.831071191D. Hons1.8312116113WSep 27 · 20:35D. Hons1.361111113M. Flesar3.009970WSep 27 · 19:05S. Kafka1.806670D. Hons1.911111113LSep 27 · 18:35P. Zivny1.8391112123D. Hons1.8311510101WSep 27 · 17:35D. Hons1.7311711113P. Zivny2.00711851LSep 27 · 16:35D. Hons2.10911551T. Palan1.6711911113WSep 27 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.611169101D. Hons2.2051111123
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