TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Kycelt vs Jakub Vales 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315114711511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:24 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kycelt above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 77 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jakub Vales at 59.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kycelt 8–13 Jakub Vales Jakub Kycelt has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:24What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Vales
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kycelt 1845 vs Vales 1862
Vales
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kycelt 60% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kycelt 70% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kycelt -2 · Vales +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vales) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kycelt form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKycelt 2.25 / Vales 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vales)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13210809
Kycelt2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 52 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Vales1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 108 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it70% 67 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKycelt4wins
AwayVales6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKycelt66.7%4 of 6
AwayVales100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kycelt6Vales4n = 10Kycelt took 6 of 10
S2Kycelt5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S3Kycelt5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S4Kycelt2Vales5n = 7Vales took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKyceltValesK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.3−3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyceltValesBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 336 vs 288 / 52750.6%54.7%170 / 336 vs 288 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ValesKycelt 2.25/Vales 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 17:30J. Kycelt176740J. Vales331111113
WSep 24 · 16:30J. Kycelt43111110113J. Vales31951251
LJul 31 · 01:00J. Kycelt334121251J. Vales46111410113
LJun 25 · 01:30J. Kycelt26811341J. Vales4211911113
LJun 15 · 18:30J. Kycelt371091171J. Vales4012116113
LJun 5 · 00:00J. Kycelt381188111J. Vales4491111133
WJun 4 · 11:00J. Kycelt381413113J. Vales30121170
LJun 4 · 07:30J. Kycelt4411811772J. Vales50911811113
WApr 23 · 19:00J. Kycelt3711123113J. Vales399101191
WApr 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt351311113J. Vales2811890
J. Kycelt10
LSep 29 · 06:30L. Jindrak1.571411123J. Kycelt2.25126100LSep 24 · 17:30J. Kycelt2.106740J. Vales1.671111113WSep 24 · 16:30J. Kycelt2.25111110113J. Vales1.57951251WSep 24 · 15:00J. Kycelt3.25111110113V. Koubek1.33771291WSep 24 · 14:00T. Postelt1.7341151452J. Kycelt2.001131112113WSep 22 · 03:30M. Huk2.5571050J. Kycelt1.451112113LSep 22 · 02:30J. Kycelt1.5398130M. Huk2.381111153WSep 22 · 01:30R. Urbaniec2.5011691162J. Kycelt1.50511115113WSep 22 · 00:00J. Kycelt1.2261115123M. Wagner4.0011713101WSep 21 · 23:00O. Svacha2.251111711102J. Kycelt1.57381113123
J. Vales10
WSep 29 · 06:00J. Vales1.831161711113E. Mares1.83911151372LSep 24 · 21:28J. Zajicek1.361111113J. Vales3.003530WSep 24 · 20:30E. Mares1.8310111081J. Vales1.8312612113LSep 24 · 19:30J. Vales2.63118891J. Medek1.4481111113WSep 24 · 18:30J. Zajicek1.3613381472J. Vales3.0011111112113WSep 24 · 17:30J. Kycelt2.106740J. Vales1.671111113LSep 24 · 16:30J. Kycelt2.25111110113J. Vales1.57951251WSep 24 · 15:30J. Vales1.501111113T. Postelt2.508530WSep 24 · 14:30V. Koubek2.00125761J. Vales1.73101111113LSep 22 · 13:00J. Vales1.9531111572E. Mares1.70119611113
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