TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Mariusz Baron 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611119511119511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Pawel Adamus @ 1.77 · Lost
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
611119511119511
H2H Pawel Adamus 20–24 Mariusz Baron Pawel Adamus has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Adamus beat Baron 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:42What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-24 in 44
Baron
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1437 vs Baron 1352
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Baron 60%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Baron 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Baron +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.90 / Baron 1.75
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Adamus)+7.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13208764
Adamus1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Baron1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 200 of 368
Up 2–0, closes it80% 96 of 120
Up 1–0, closes it66% 142 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayBaron5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus44.4%4 of 9
AwayBaronn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus9Baron1n = 10Adamus took 9 of 10
S2Adamus1Baron9n = 10Baron took 9 of 10
S3Adamus4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Adamus6Baron4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S5Adamus3Baron3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusBaronA − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match45.345.8−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 707 vs 874 / 182955.3%47.8%391 / 707 vs 874 / 1829Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.90/Baron 1.75
Miss
What we said
55.2%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pawel Adamus @ 1.77 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 19:10P. Adamus50119613113M. Baron48711111182
WSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus47111311123M. Baron429158101
LSep 20 · 18:45P. Adamus4211711762M. Baron49811811113
WSep 10 · 00:45P. Adamus531171113113M. Baron4851181592
LAug 28 · 15:55P. Adamus6011111511122M. Baron60713179143
LAug 28 · 09:55P. Adamus31118661M. Baron4291111113
LAug 20 · 06:00P. Adamus4611891172M. Baron44511116113
WAug 11 · 16:20P. Adamus514111112133M. Baron531113810112
WAug 11 · 06:45P. Adamus4211119113M. Baron31581171
LJul 19 · 07:10P. Adamus31118841M. Baron4181111113
P. Adamus10
WSep 27 · 22:20O. Vincenec2.20471171P. Adamus1.5711117113LSep 27 · 21:30P. Kurek1.931312113P. Adamus1.78111060WSep 27 · 20:45P. Adamus1.5711911113J. Pruszkowski2.20511881WSep 27 · 19:10P. Adamus1.62119613113M. Baron2.17711111182WSep 27 · 18:20W. Urban2.4015990P. Adamus1.441711113LSep 25 · 08:00Y. Fomin1.901141011113P. Adamus1.8071112782LSep 25 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.301112711113P. Adamus1.5521411972WSep 25 · 06:25P. Adamus1.351111123J. Nowak2.8578100WSep 25 · 04:50P. Adamus1.70611811113M. Lebek1.9511311882LSep 25 · 04:00P. Polok1.9891111113P. Adamus1.73115891
M. Baron10
WSep 27 · 21:55J. Pruszkowski1.401110841M. Baron2.7561211113LSep 27 · 19:55O. Vincenec1.90691411153M. Baron1.761111129132LSep 27 · 19:10P. Adamus1.62119613113M. Baron2.17711111182WSep 27 · 17:30P. Kurek1.66710110M. Baron2.051112133WSep 26 · 02:35O. Vincenec1.801091181M. Baron1.9112118113WSep 26 · 01:25M. Baron2.2511911113L. Oracz1.57711581WSep 26 · 00:10O. Sokolowski1.80611671M. Baron1.9111611113LSep 25 · 22:55R. Szymik1.4011116113M. Baron2.75861151LSep 25 · 21:20K. Juszczyk1.73199117123M. Baron2.001711811102WSep 25 · 20:05M. Baron2.00611119113L. Oracz1.7311571182
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.