TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Polok vs Pawel Adamus 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115118119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:46 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
911115118119––
H2H Pawel Polok 3–1 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Adamus beat Polok 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Polok
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1470 vs Adamus 1428
Polok
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 80% vs Adamus 60%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 60% vs Adamus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +2 · Adamus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.98 / Adamus 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13192690
Polok1.98
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog63% won 20 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back42% 5 of 12
Adamus1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 211 of 332
Up 2–0, closes it99% 101 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it79% 158 of 201
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolok3wins
AwayAdamus1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderPolok leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolok66.7%2 of 3
AwayAdamusn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok3Adamus1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S2Polok3Adamus1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S3Polok3Adamus1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S4Polok1Adamus2n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolokAdamusP − ABasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.235.5+6.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 230 vs 386 / 69864.4%55.3%148 / 230 vs 386 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusPolok 1.98/Adamus 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 25 · 00:00P. Polok47111011692P. Adamus48912511113
WSep 19 · 11:50P. Polok48111169113P. Adamus4395111172
WAug 31 · 03:30P. Polok4071111113P. Adamus30115591
WAug 30 · 21:30P. Polok341112113P. Adamus2151060
P. Polok10
WSep 25 · 05:10P. Polok1.2611911113J. Nowak3.15811471WSep 25 · 02:20P. Polok2.351213113M. Lebek1.50101190WSep 25 · 00:45G. Jurowicz3.1551080P. Polok1.301112113LSep 25 · 00:00P. Adamus1.80912511113P. Polok1.85111011692WSep 24 · 23:10P. Polok1.121111113J. Nowak5.209760WSep 24 · 22:00P. Polok1.9311128113M. Tkocz1.789101191LSep 23 · 13:55P. Polok1.226380P. Slosarczyk4.001111113LSep 23 · 12:40P. Polok1.50119911112P. Przewlocki2.50511113133WSep 23 · 11:25P. Polok2.101211813113K. Slawinski1.67147111162LSep 23 · 10:10W. Urban2.00981111123P. Polok1.73111117102
P. Adamus10
WSep 25 · 04:50P. Adamus1.70611811113M. Lebek1.9511311882LSep 25 · 02:45P. Adamus1.37101111111J. Nowak2.8012513133WSep 25 · 01:10P. Adamus1.7113111110113M. Tkocz2.0015681272WSep 25 · 00:00P. Adamus1.80912511113P. Polok1.85111011692WSep 24 · 22:25P. Adamus1.581111123G. Jurowicz2.2597100LSep 24 · 21:10P. Adamus1.95511461M. Lebek1.7011811113WSep 23 · 08:00R. Idaczyk1.711161131P. Adamus2.0071113113WSep 23 · 07:10I. Szymanski4.35691191P. Adamus1.1611118113LSep 23 · 06:25P. Adamus1.85810111382M. Lebek1.851112311113WSep 23 · 04:50P. Adamus1.681112113M. Paszkiewicz2.0571080
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