TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Polok vs Jakub Nowak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911114117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:35 and never touched — 74.2% is still 74.2%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
74.2%
74.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
118911114117––
H2H Pawel Polok 1–2 Jakub Nowak Pawel Polok has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Polok beat Nowak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:35What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (71%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1480 vs Nowak 1298
Polok
Correct
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 80% vs Nowak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 60% vs Nowak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +3 · Nowak +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Polok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.26 / Nowak 3.15
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13192762
Polok1.26
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 105 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 107
Nowak3.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 246 of 673
Down 0–1, comes back21% 86 of 403
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 235
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePolok1wins
AwayNowak2wins
Nowak leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
S2Polok1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
S3Polok1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricPolokNowakP − NBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match26.329.3−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 231 vs 687 / 177364.5%38.8%149 / 231 vs 687 / 1773Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.26/Nowak 3.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.2%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 24 · 23:10P. Polok331111113J. Nowak229760
LAug 30 · 05:05P. Polok225890J. Nowak331111113
LAug 29 · 20:45P. Polok247980J. Nowak331111113
P. Polok10
WSep 25 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.9551170P. Polok1.351113113WSep 25 · 04:00P. Polok1.9891111113P. Adamus1.73115891WSep 25 · 02:20P. Polok2.351213113M. Lebek1.50101190WSep 25 · 00:45G. Jurowicz3.1551080P. Polok1.301112113LSep 25 · 00:00P. Adamus1.80912511113P. Polok1.85111011692WSep 24 · 23:10P. Polok1.121111113J. Nowak5.209760WSep 24 · 22:00P. Polok1.9311128113M. Tkocz1.789101191LSep 23 · 13:55P. Polok1.226380P. Slosarczyk4.001111113LSep 23 · 12:40P. Polok1.50119911112P. Przewlocki2.50511113133WSep 23 · 11:25P. Polok2.101211813113K. Slawinski1.67147111162
J. Nowak10
WSep 25 · 03:35Y. Fomin1.558980J. Nowak2.251111113WSep 25 · 02:45P. Adamus1.37101111111J. Nowak2.8012513133WSep 25 · 01:35J. Nowak1.5311116113M. Lebek2.36991171WSep 25 · 00:25M. Tkocz1.207770J. Nowak3.901111113LSep 24 · 23:10P. Polok1.121111113J. Nowak5.209760LSep 24 · 21:35G. Jurowicz1.761111113J. Nowak1.977650LSep 24 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.8511121313113J. Nowak1.85714151182LSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113WSep 24 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.27812140J. Nowak3.251114163LSep 24 · 05:10A. Burkacki1.80811117143J. Nowak1.85118911122
Upcoming Matches
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J. Nowak
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