TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marcin Stepien vs Dawid Stapor 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11911712141311––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
11911712141311––
H2H Marcin Stepien 82–102 Dawid Stapor Marcin Stepien has won 82 of their 184 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Stepien beat Stapor 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.87 / Stapor 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stapor)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13194783
Stepien1.87
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 35 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Stapor1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 161 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it99% 78 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it88% 120 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien5wins
AwayStapor5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien71.4%5 of 7
AwayStapor100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien7Stapor3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Stepien8Stapor2n = 10Stepien took 8 of 10
S3Stepien5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Stepien2Stapor4n = 6Stapor took 4 of 6
S5Stepien0Stapor3n = 3Stapor took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienStaporStepien − StaporBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.7+3.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1174 vs 486 / 91355.4%53.2%650 / 1174 vs 486 / 913Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStepien 1.87/Stapor 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 13:30M. Stepien47111112133D. Stapor419714111
WSep 25 · 09:30M. Stepien331111113D. Stapor238960
LSep 23 · 10:30M. Stepien48115119122D. Stapor53811911143
LSep 22 · 05:30M. Stepien4491111672D. Stapor43113711113
LSep 19 · 11:35M. Stepien236890D. Stapor331111113
WSep 18 · 07:30M. Stepien4211119113D. Stapor27761131
WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien331111113D. Stapor186570
LSep 1 · 05:00M. Stepien489209101D. Stapor52111811123
WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stepien331111113D. Stapor218490
LAug 23 · 16:35M. Stepien4211117852D. Stapor46851111113
M. Stepien10
WSep 25 · 11:00M. Stepien1.71413144123B. Fraczek2.0311111211102WSep 25 · 09:30M. Stepien1.651111113D. Stapor2.108960LSep 25 · 08:00M. Stepien1.959690M. Lysakowski1.771111113WSep 25 · 06:30M. Stepien1.4611711113P. Gola2.50511571WSep 25 · 05:00M. Stepien1.301111113J. Masternak2.935570LSep 23 · 13:10M. Stepien1.4491171192P. Gola2.60118116113WSep 23 · 12:00P. Gola2.37541171M. Stepien1.5211116113LSep 23 · 10:30M. Stepien1.76115119122D. Stapor1.85811911143LSep 23 · 08:30M. Galus1.521111123M. Stepien2.3579100WSep 23 · 06:00S. Radlo1.71841111102M. Stepien2.00111199123
D. Stapor10
WSep 25 · 11:30D. Stapor1.937111310113J. Masternak1.79119111292LSep 25 · 09:30M. Stepien1.651111113D. Stapor2.108960WSep 25 · 08:30D. Stapor1.5711711113P. Gola2.25811671WSep 25 · 07:30B. Fraczek2.1081080D. Stapor1.601112113WSep 25 · 06:00D. Stapor2.1711101113113M. Lysakowski1.5491271522LSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor2.126730M. Galus1.571111113WSep 23 · 11:30M. Galus1.6511611872D. Stapor2.10511711113WSep 23 · 10:30M. Stepien1.76115119122D. Stapor1.85811911143WSep 23 · 09:00B. Molka2.1011911452D. Stapor1.60111711113WSep 23 · 06:30P. Gola2.05111351152D. Stapor1.69715118113
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