TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dawid Stapor vs Michal Lysakowski 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11910121171315112
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
11910121171315112
H2H Dawid Stapor 120–95 Michal Lysakowski Michal Lysakowski has won 95 of their 215 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (58%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
120-95 in 215
Stapor
Correct
gap of 25 in 215, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1642 vs Lysakowski 1698
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Lysakowski 40%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Lysakowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Lysakowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 2.17 / Lysakowski 1.54
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Lysakowski)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13191902
Stapor2.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 43 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Lysakowski1.54
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 191 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it93% 118 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it76% 162 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor4wins
AwayLysakowski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor80%4 of 5
AwayLysakowski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Stapor5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Stapor4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S4Stapor3Lysakowski7n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporLysakowskiS − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.240.7−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 908 vs 667 / 133153.2%50.1%483 / 908 vs 667 / 1331Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiStapor 2.17/Lysakowski 1.54
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 06:00D. Stapor5611101113113M. Lysakowski4591271522
LSep 22 · 09:00D. Stapor36129961M. Lysakowski43101111113
WSep 21 · 13:30D. Stapor4112117113M. Lysakowski321061151
WSep 21 · 08:00D. Stapor46111212113M. Lysakowski389101451
LSep 18 · 10:00D. Stapor33691171M. Lysakowski3911116113
LSep 15 · 05:00D. Stapor32612591M. Lysakowski43111011113
WSep 11 · 08:00D. Stapor46111113113M. Lysakowski39871591
LSep 9 · 13:10D. Stapor3911611111M. Lysakowski4313116133
LSep 9 · 10:00D. Stapor36981361M. Lysakowski44111111113
LSep 1 · 06:00D. Stapor27711451M. Lysakowski4111811113
D. Stapor10
LSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor2.126730M. Galus1.571111113WSep 23 · 11:30M. Galus1.6511611872D. Stapor2.10511711113WSep 23 · 10:30M. Stepien1.76115119122D. Stapor1.85811911143WSep 23 · 09:00B. Molka2.1011911452D. Stapor1.60111711113WSep 23 · 06:30P. Gola2.05111351152D. Stapor1.69715118113LSep 23 · 05:00S. Radlo2.1011911123D. Stapor1.604119101WSep 22 · 13:10S. Radlo1.65881191D. Stapor2.1011117113LSep 22 · 11:00B. Molka2.251111113D. Stapor1.575980WSep 22 · 10:00D. Stapor1.6051211133S. Wloszek2.2011107111LSep 22 · 09:00D. Stapor2.10129961M. Lysakowski1.66101111113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 25 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.551111113J. Masternak2.305880WSep 24 · 13:00S. Wloszek2.2539150M. Lysakowski1.581111173LSep 24 · 11:00S. Wloszek2.321111113M. Lysakowski1.558990LSep 24 · 10:00M. Lysakowski2.2281181182J. Masternak1.59117118113LSep 24 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.627119101P. Gola2.1511911123WSep 24 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.391161113113B. Fraczek2.8091181592WSep 24 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.66141211113M. Galus2.101214471WSep 22 · 13:40M. Lysakowski1.36111110113B. Molka2.90691271WSep 22 · 11:30S. Radlo2.37113381M. Lysakowski1.5251111113WSep 22 · 09:00D. Stapor2.10129961M. Lysakowski1.66101111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Stapor
M. Lysakowski
Nothing scheduled
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