TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Galus vs Dawid Stapor 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Mateusz Galus
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115611117811711
Dawid Stapor
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
115611117811711
H2H Mateusz Galus 42–40 Dawid Stapor Dawid Stapor has won 40 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Galus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-40 in 82
Galus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1673 vs Stapor 1630
Galus
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 80% vs Stapor 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 70% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus +4 · Stapor +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Galus) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.65 / Stapor 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Galus)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13182940
Galus1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 128 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 66 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it78% 94 of 120
Stapor2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 42 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus6wins
AwayStapor4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGalus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus100%4 of 4
AwayStapor66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Galus7Stapor3n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S3Galus5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Galus4Stapor3n = 7Galus took 4 of 7
S5Galus2Stapor1n = 3Galus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusStaporG − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.8+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 679 vs 483 / 91053.3%53.1%362 / 679 vs 483 / 910Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.65/Stapor 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 14:05M. Galus32811491D. Stapor4011711113
WSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus331111113D. Stapor183690
WSep 18 · 12:40M. Galus4211119113D. Stapor35791181
WSep 18 · 09:00M. Galus4391112113D. Stapor381191081
WSep 11 · 07:00M. Galus56911169113D. Stapor44114141142
LAug 27 · 07:30M. Galus30841261D. Stapor43111110113
WAug 19 · 10:30M. Galus51117911133D. Stapor46511118112
WAug 18 · 13:10M. Galus331111113D. Stapor174760
LAug 18 · 09:30M. Galus2376100D. Stapor341111123
LJul 30 · 05:00M. Galus48131161172D. Stapor53158118113
M. Galus10
WSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor2.126730M. Galus1.571111113WSep 23 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101111771M. Galus1.6513611113WSep 23 · 08:30M. Galus1.521111123M. Stepien2.3579100WSep 23 · 07:30B. Molka2.1045111142M. Galus1.65111178113WSep 23 · 07:00M. Galus1.441111113P. Gola2.504750LSep 19 · 14:05M. Galus1.83811491D. Stapor1.8911711113WSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 10:35M. Ovcharenko1.57511118123M. Galus2.20116511102WSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus1.801111113D. Stapor1.903690LSep 19 · 08:35D. Skvarskyi1.911411712113M. Galus1.78164111072
D. Stapor10
LSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor2.126730M. Galus1.571111113WSep 23 · 10:30M. Stepien1.76115119122D. Stapor1.85811911143WSep 23 · 09:00B. Molka2.1011911452D. Stapor1.60111711113WSep 23 · 06:30P. Gola2.05111351152D. Stapor1.69715118113LSep 23 · 05:00S. Radlo2.1011911123D. Stapor1.604119101WSep 22 · 13:10S. Radlo1.65881191D. Stapor2.1011117113LSep 22 · 11:00B. Molka2.251111113D. Stapor1.575980WSep 22 · 10:00D. Stapor1.6051211133S. Wloszek2.2011107111WSep 19 · 14:05M. Galus1.83811491D. Stapor1.8911711113LSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus1.801111113D. Stapor1.903690
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