TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marcin Stepien vs Dawid Stapor 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1185111199111214
Dawid Stapor
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
1185111199111214
H2H Marcin Stepien 80–101 Dawid Stapor Marcin Stepien has won 80 of their 181 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:43What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (51%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
80-101 in 181
Stapor
Correct
gap of 21 in 181, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1605 vs Stapor 1619
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -1 · Stapor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.76 / Stapor 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stepien)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13182744
Stepien1.76
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 191 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it94% 127 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it81% 153 of 189
Stapor1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 42 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien6wins
AwayStapor4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien85.7%6 of 7
AwayStapor100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien7Stapor3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Stepien7Stapor3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S3Stepien6Stapor4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S4Stepien2Stapor4n = 6Stapor took 4 of 6
S5Stepien1Stapor2n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienStaporStepien − StaporBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.232.5+6.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1175 vs 483 / 91055.3%53.1%650 / 1175 vs 483 / 910Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.76/Stapor 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 05:30M. Stepien4491111672D. Stapor43113711113
LSep 19 · 11:35M. Stepien236890D. Stapor331111113
WSep 18 · 07:30M. Stepien4211119113D. Stapor27761131
WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien331111113D. Stapor186570
LSep 1 · 05:00M. Stepien489209101D. Stapor52111811123
WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stepien331111113D. Stapor218490
LAug 23 · 16:35M. Stepien4211117852D. Stapor46851111113
WAug 21 · 05:00M. Stepien511110118113D. Stapor4061241172
WAug 18 · 05:00M. Stepien331111113D. Stapor184950
WJul 29 · 13:40M. Stepien43111011113D. Stapor27512731
M. Stepien10
LSep 23 · 08:30M. Galus1.521111123M. Stepien2.3579100WSep 23 · 06:00S. Radlo1.71841111102M. Stepien2.00111199123LSep 23 · 05:30B. Molka2.4011811113M. Stepien1.50911981LSep 22 · 12:40M. Stepien—121151182S. Wloszek—149118113WSep 22 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.50761181M. Stepien1.3711119113LSep 22 · 10:30M. Stepien1.8834111152M. Lysakowski1.82111168113LSep 22 · 08:30S. Radlo2.351191311113M. Stepien1.5281115672WSep 22 · 06:30B. Molka2.608911101M. Stepien1.4111116123LSep 22 · 05:30D. Stapor1.88113711113M. Stepien1.8291111672WSep 20 · 23:45M. Lysakowski2.30611881M. Stepien1.5511711113
D. Stapor10
WSep 23 · 09:00B. Molka2.1011911452D. Stapor1.60111711113WSep 23 · 06:30P. Gola2.05111351152D. Stapor1.69715118113LSep 23 · 05:00S. Radlo2.1011911123D. Stapor1.604119101WSep 22 · 13:10S. Radlo1.65881191D. Stapor2.1011117113LSep 22 · 11:00B. Molka2.251111113D. Stapor1.575980WSep 22 · 10:00D. Stapor1.6051211133S. Wloszek2.2011107111LSep 22 · 09:00D. Stapor2.10129961M. Lysakowski1.66101111113LSep 22 · 07:30D. Stapor1.50713118122S. Radlo2.401111611143WSep 22 · 05:30D. Stapor1.88113711113M. Stepien1.8291111672WSep 21 · 13:30D. Stapor2.0512117113M. Lysakowski1.701061151
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