TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Szymon Radlo vs Marcin Stepien 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Szymon Radlo
Home
1.71
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8114111191191012
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:42 and never touched — 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
8114111191191012
H2H Szymon Radlo 38–47 Marcin Stepien Szymon Radlo has won 38 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:42What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Radlo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-47 in 85
Stepien
Correct
gap of 9 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Radlo 1511 vs Stepien 1617
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Radlo 40% vs Stepien 20%
Radlo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Radlo 40% vs Stepien 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Radlo +1 · Stepien -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Radlo) · live re-read · sealed at 36% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRadlo 1.71 / Stepien 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Radlo)+0.1pp
TT Cup · #13181983
Radlo1.71
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 102 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 87 of 114
Stepien2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back28% 12 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRadlo4wins
AwayStepien6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRadlo100%4 of 4
AwayStepien100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Radlo4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Radlo3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S3Radlo3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Radlo4Stepien1n = 5Radlo took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRadloStepienR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.738.2−4.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRadloStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 778 vs 650 / 117449.5%55.4%385 / 778 vs 650 / 1174Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RadloRadlo 1.71/Stepien 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Radlo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 06:00S. Radlo44841111102M. Stepien52111199123
WSep 22 · 08:30S. Radlo551191311113M. Stepien4781115672
LSep 20 · 18:35S. Radlo196580M. Stepien331111113
LSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo331112100M. Stepien391314123
LSep 13 · 15:05S. Radlo30313771M. Stepien44111111113
WSep 12 · 06:00S. Radlo3911116113M. Stepien37981191
LSep 10 · 12:40S. Radlo188640M. Stepien331111113
WSep 10 · 10:30S. Radlo351311113M. Stepien2811890
LSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo219570M. Stepien331111113
WSep 4 · 05:00S. Radlo4311911123M. Stepien369116101
S. Radlo10
WSep 23 · 05:00S. Radlo2.1011911123D. Stapor1.604119101LSep 22 · 13:10S. Radlo1.65881191D. Stapor2.1011117113LSep 22 · 11:30S. Radlo2.37113381M. Lysakowski1.5251111113LSep 22 · 09:30B. Molka1.651111113S. Radlo2.109990WSep 22 · 08:30S. Radlo2.351191311113M. Stepien1.5281115672WSep 22 · 07:30D. Stapor1.50713118122S. Radlo2.401111611143LSep 22 · 06:00S. Radlo1.919119101S. Wloszek1.8011811123LSep 21 · 12:30S. Radlo2.106680P. Gola1.661111113LSep 21 · 12:00M. Lysakowski1.391111123S. Radlo2.8086100WSep 21 · 10:30S. Radlo1.951111113P. Gola1.746980
M. Stepien10
LSep 23 · 05:30B. Molka2.4011811113M. Stepien1.50911981LSep 22 · 12:40M. Stepien—121151182S. Wloszek—149118113WSep 22 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.50761181M. Stepien1.3711119113LSep 22 · 10:30M. Stepien1.8834111152M. Lysakowski1.82111168113LSep 22 · 08:30S. Radlo2.351191311113M. Stepien1.5281115672WSep 22 · 06:30B. Molka2.608911101M. Stepien1.4111116123LSep 22 · 05:30D. Stapor1.88113711113M. Stepien1.8291111672WSep 20 · 23:45M. Lysakowski2.30611881M. Stepien1.5511711113LSep 20 · 21:35M. Stepien1.418650S. Wloszek2.601111113WSep 20 · 19:35P. Gola2.2071181182M. Stepien1.57119115113
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