TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Leos Havrda vs Jiri Svec 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181311119––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Jiri Svec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 63 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Leos Havrda at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 18–22 Jiri Svec Leos Havrda has won 18 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:31What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Svec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-22 in 40
Svec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1247 vs Svec 1205
Havrda
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 60% vs Svec 40%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 60% vs Svec 40%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +3 · Svec +2
Havrda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Havrda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svec form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.91 / Svec 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Havrda)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13188373
Havrda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 23)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Svec1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 51 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda5wins
AwaySvec5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrdan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySvec62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda2Svec8n = 10Svec took 8 of 10
S2Havrda6Svec4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Havrda5Svec5n = 10split evenly
S4Havrda5Svec2n = 7Havrda took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaSvecH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.9−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaSvecBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 492 vs 387 / 83546.1%46.4%227 / 492 vs 387 / 835Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.91/Svec 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 14:00L. Havrda351113113J. Svec2881190
WSep 15 · 17:10L. Havrda48812611113J. Svec47111011962
WSep 15 · 15:00L. Havrda4111711123J. Svec389118101
LAug 10 · 16:30L. Havrda341091141J. Svec4012116113
LAug 1 · 06:00L. Havrda44411101182J. Svec50119127113
LJul 11 · 13:04L. Havrda229490J. Svec331111113
LJul 11 · 10:00L. Havrda259970J. Svec331111113
WMay 30 · 21:00L. Havrda44101111123J. Svec391289101
LMay 30 · 18:30L. Havrda351111581J. Svec4313811113
WMay 24 · 08:30L. Havrda4171111123J. Svec381198101
L. Havrda10
LSep 25 · 17:30M. Lubas1.731111113L. Havrda2.006530LSep 25 · 16:00L. Havrda1.80981481M. Lubas1.91111112113LSep 25 · 15:30V. Stach1.83125116113L. Havrda1.83101161132WSep 23 · 17:30L. Havrda2.20111179113M. Barta1.6099111192WSep 23 · 16:30L. Havrda1.57711117143J. Grohsgott2.25113711122WSep 23 · 15:00L. Havrda2.101111123M. Novotny1.6798100LSep 23 · 14:00M. Barta1.6711117113L. Havrda2.10971181LSep 20 · 02:59P. Berdych1.611111123L. Havrda2.2065100WSep 20 · 02:00L. Havrda1.611111113J. Grohsgott2.206780LSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113
J. Svec10
WSep 25 · 17:02V. Stach2.10871161J. Svec1.6711119113WSep 25 · 16:30J. Svec1.8381111113V. Stach1.83119471LSep 25 · 15:00J. Svec2.2591080M. Lubas1.571112113WSep 24 · 20:58J. Svec1.9112811123V. Stach1.8010117101WSep 24 · 20:30J. Svec1.80911711113V. Stach1.9111811672LSep 24 · 19:00J. Svec2.509111141M. Varcl1.5011139113LSep 24 · 18:00J. Grohsgott1.73119137113J. Svec2.00811111122LSep 20 · 20:59M. Syroha1.801113133J. Svec1.91511110LSep 20 · 20:30M. Lubas1.7311117113J. Svec2.00591131WSep 20 · 19:30J. Svec1.9171111113J. Grohsgott1.80117681
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