TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Alfred Rinka vs Richard Skacelik 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611711117118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlfred Rinka above · Richard Skacelik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Richard Skacelik at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Alfred Rinka 1–2 Richard Skacelik Alfred Rinka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2554.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skacelik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rinka 1622 vs Skacelik 1623
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rinka 40% vs Skacelik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rinka 60% vs Skacelik 40%
Rinka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rinka -3 · Skacelik -2
Rinka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skacelik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRinka 2.20 / Skacelik 1.615
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skacelik)-7.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248651
Rinka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Skacelik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 68 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it70% 51 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRinka1wins
AwaySkacelik2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderSkacelik leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rinka1Skacelik2n = 3Skacelik took 2 of 3
S2Rinka1Skacelik2n = 3Skacelik took 2 of 3
S3Rinka0Skacelik3n = 3Skacelik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricRinkaSkacelikR − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.343.7−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRinkaSkacelikBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 83 vs 243 / 49951.8%48.7%43 / 83 vs 243 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikRinka 2.20/Skacelik 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 6 · 07:30A. Rinka46116711113R. Skacelik4691111782
LJun 11 · 17:00A. Rinka247890R. Skacelik331111113
LJun 11 · 15:30A. Rinka481011411122R. Skacelik52129116143
A. Rinka10
LOct 6 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.831112143A. Rinka1.83910120LSep 24 · 09:30A. Rinka2.1055110J. Snr1.671111133LSep 24 · 08:00A. Rinka2.1011912922J. Snr1.675111011113WSep 24 · 07:30D. Oborny2.25811371A. Rinka1.5711811113WSep 24 · 06:00A. Rinka2.1061111113J. Mikula1.67117651WSep 22 · 09:30A. Rinka1.851113113P. Danko1.8591180WSep 22 · 08:30A. Rinka1.501211113D. Machander2.5010940WSep 22 · 07:00A. Rinka2.00116811113P. Danko1.7391111852WSep 22 · 06:00S. Byrtus1.73117531A. Rinka2.0051111113LSep 20 · 09:30M. Heczko1.521111113A. Rinka2.359760
R. Skacelik10
WOct 6 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.57118113113S. Byrtus2.2541181192LOct 6 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.671156111V. Adamczyk2.1081111133LOct 4 · 09:28R. Skacelik1.9161151152D. Langer1.80119117113WOct 4 · 08:30R. Skacelik2.00125811113E. Rychlik1.73101111892LOct 4 · 07:00R. Skacelik1.807121191D. Heczko1.9111147113WOct 4 · 06:00D. Langer1.5711980R. Skacelik2.251311113LOct 2 · 09:16R. Skacelik1.92711991J. Mikula1.7811611113LOct 2 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.80111091192J. Schwan1.91712115113WOct 2 · 07:30J. Mikula1.7351111772R. Skacelik2.00116411113LOct 2 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.3014881182J. Levicky3.401211117113
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