TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Jakub Kwapis 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511211––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:39 and never touched: 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Jakub Kwapis below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 47 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Dawid Michna at 71.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 4–4 Jakub Kwapis Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Kwapis beat Michna 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3971.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 3.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1838 vs Kwapis 1701
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs Kwapis 40%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs Kwapis 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna +2 · Kwapis -3
Kwapis
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.333 / Kwapis 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Michna)-3.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227324
Michna1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Kwapis3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMichna4wins
AwayKwapis4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichnan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKwapis50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna2Kwapis6n = 8Kwapis took 6 of 8
S2Michna5Kwapis3n = 8Michna took 5 of 8
S3Michna3Kwapis5n = 8Kwapis took 5 of 8
S4Michna6Kwapis1n = 7Michna took 6 of 7
S5Michna2Kwapis3n = 5Kwapis took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMichnaKwapisM − KBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match43.943.1+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaKwapisBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 921 vs 246 / 53154.2%46.3%499 / 921 vs 246 / 531Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.33/Kwapis 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.7%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwapis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 2 · 06:30D. Michna4511811782J. Kwapis47811611113
LApr 22 · 14:25D. Michna2431290J. Kwapis361114113
WOct 25 · 14:50D. Michna3961111113J. Kwapis36118891
WOct 25 · 09:35D. Michna53118711163J. Kwapis49711116142
LSep 18 · 10:45D. Michna48111271172J. Kwapis501310115113
WSep 3 · 14:00D. Michna4381113113J. Kwapis351161171
LJul 31 · 13:40D. Michna5091181392J. Kwapis531191111113
WJul 31 · 09:35D. Michna49811811113J. Kwapis3911511842
D. Michna10
WOct 2 · 14:10D. Michna1.8011811113M. Jadczyk1.91911951WOct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.6711168123K. Kolodziej2.1091411101LOct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53115771J. Kuzmicz2.3851111113WOct 2 · 10:00D. Michna1.61111111143K. Wloczko2.201358121LOct 2 · 08:05D. Michna1.6110513131K. Wloczko2.20121111153LOct 2 · 06:30J. Kwapis2.63811611113D. Michna1.4411811782WOct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38111291072D. Michna1.537101112113WOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191LOct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00137981M. Jadczyk1.73111111113LOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.8311991142K. Wloczko1.83511116113
J. Kwapis10
LOct 2 · 14:35J. Kwapis2.3870K. Wloczko1.5381LOct 2 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.30591511113J. Kwapis3.40111113862LOct 2 · 12:05K. Kolodziej1.531112113J. Kwapis2.3831070LOct 2 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113J. Kwapis2.257590WOct 2 · 07:45J. Kwapis3.00128611113M. Jadczyk1.36101111652WOct 2 · 06:30J. Kwapis2.63811611113D. Michna1.4411811782WOct 2 · 05:15J. Kwapis1.9111711123K. Wloczko1.806117101WOct 2 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz1.538770J. Kwapis2.381111113LOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113LOct 1 · 14:35J. Kwapis1.85351221P. Jendrzejewski1.85111110113
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