TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Mark Robin Wagner vs Martin Skakal 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191210––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMark Robin Wagner above · Martin Skakal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Mark Robin Wagner 4–5 Martin Skakal Mark Robin Wagner has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skakal beat Wagner 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2754.0%Our read56.5%to break even at 1.77
short by 2.5pp56.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.77 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1667 vs Skakal 1739
Skakal
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Skakal 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 70% vs Skakal 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Skakal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skakal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.77 / Skakal 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13225491
Wagner1.77
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Skakal1.93
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeWagner4wins
AwaySkakal5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSkakal leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner50%3 of 6
AwaySkakal66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner6Skakal3n = 9Wagner took 6 of 9
S2Wagner3Skakal6n = 9Skakal took 6 of 9
S3Wagner2Skakal7n = 9Skakal took 7 of 9
S4Wagner4Skakal3n = 7Wagner took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricWagnerSkakalW − SBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match36.639.2−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerSkakalBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 206 vs 97 / 18252.4%53.3%108 / 206 vs 97 / 182Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.77/Skakal 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 1 · 01:30M. Wagner4411961172M. Skakal49711119113
LAug 23 · 21:30M. Wagner2413560M. Skakal371511113
WAug 23 · 18:00M. Wagner4511167113M. Skakal409141161
LAug 20 · 01:30M. Wagner174670M. Skakal331111113
WAug 18 · 02:00M. Wagner43101111113M. Skakal26123651
WAug 17 · 19:30M. Wagner44111336113M. Skakal49711111192
WAug 14 · 02:00M. Wagner4211911113M. Skakal32711681
LAug 12 · 02:59M. Wagner381410771M. Skakal46121211113
LAug 11 · 22:00M. Wagner32118851M. Skakal4181111113
M. Wagner10
LOct 1 · 01:30M. Wagner2.2511961172M. Skakal1.57711119113WOct 1 · 00:30M. Regner2.1041020M. Wagner1.671112113WSep 30 · 23:30J. Tazler2.207560M. Wagner1.611111113WSep 30 · 22:30M. Wagner1.57111199123S. Kasnik2.25521111102WSep 29 · 21:30P. Saleny1.91111111292M. Wagner1.80119814113WSep 29 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.106340M. Wagner1.671111113WSep 29 · 19:00J. Louda2.006111261M. Wagner1.73111310113LSep 29 · 18:30M. Wagner1.73591161P. Saleny2.0011119113WSep 29 · 17:00M. Wagner1.24111211113J. Zuzanek3.75614941LSep 29 · 16:00M. Pikous1.676121111113M. Wagner2.1011147692
M. Skakal10
LOct 1 · 02:30M. Skakal1.61811381J. Tazler2.2011811113WOct 1 · 01:30M. Wagner2.2511961172M. Skakal1.57711119113WOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040WSep 30 · 23:00M. Regner2.507650M. Skakal1.501111113WSep 30 · 21:30M. Skakal2.20711117113R. Rose1.6011681162LSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:00O. Svacha1.61812991M. Skakal2.20111011113WSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100WSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092LSep 29 · 01:30M. Skakal1.6181191142J. Tazler2.20115117113
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