TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Khamurda vs Oleksandr Naida 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911511––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 95–119 Oleksandr Naida Vitalii Khamurda has won 95 of their 214 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:51What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Naida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
95-119 in 214
Naida
Correct
gap of 24 in 214, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1564 vs Naida 1523
Khamurda
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 40% vs Naida 20%
Khamurda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 50% vs Naida 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda -3 · Naida +1
Khamurda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Naida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.83 / Naida 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khamurda)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13202588
Khamurda1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Naida1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda8wins
AwayNaida2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhamurda leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurda87.5%7 of 8
AwayNaidan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda8Naida2n = 10Khamurda took 8 of 10
S2Khamurda6Naida4n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S3Khamurda6Naida4n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S4Khamurda5Naida2n = 7Khamurda took 5 of 7
S5Khamurda3Naida2n = 5Khamurda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaNaidaK − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.5+4.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 876 vs 476 / 92953.8%51.2%471 / 876 vs 476 / 929Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaKhamurda 1.83/Naida 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 00:25V. Khamurda4211911113O. Naida28411851
LSep 22 · 23:35V. Khamurda4211114882O. Naida44651111113
WSep 22 · 03:25V. Khamurda3911116113O. Naida32791151
WSep 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda49129611113O. Naida48101111792
LSep 15 · 23:05V. Khamurda4446111492O. Naida531111812113
WSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda331111113O. Naida246990
WSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda351311113O. Naida2211830
WSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda331111113O. Naida229940
WAug 30 · 23:55V. Khamurda46411812113O. Naida47118111072
WAug 28 · 17:35V. Khamurda511181110113O. Naida4581171272
V. Khamurda10
LSep 27 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.913890D. Derevynskyi1.801111113LSep 25 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.611111921T. Ponomarenko2.2081311113LSep 25 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73158991R. Gnoevoy2.00131111113WSep 25 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.8011911113O. Naida1.91411851WSep 24 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.2081111113S. Abalmaz1.61119831WSep 24 · 21:25V. Khamurda2.631011116113V. Panasenko1.4412971172WSep 23 · 03:05S. Skachenko1.67127791V. Khamurda2.10101111113WSep 23 · 02:05V. Khamurda1.67111110113T. Ponomarenko2.10771261LSep 23 · 01:05V. Khamurda2.251111751S. Abalmaz1.5713511113LSep 22 · 23:35V. Khamurda1.9111114882O. Naida1.80651111113
O. Naida10
WSep 27 · 22:25O. Naida2.63811811123S. Abalmaz1.44119119102LSep 25 · 04:25O. Naida2.631011117122S. Abalmaz1.44126411143LSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181LSep 25 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.8011911113O. Naida1.91411851LSep 24 · 23:25O. Naida2.50101161162V. Panasenko1.50128119113LSep 24 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.67681111113O. Naida2.1011117992LSep 23 · 03:35O. Naida2.50771161S. Abalmaz1.5011119113WSep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.57912761O. Naida2.25111011113WSep 23 · 00:35O. Naida2.00711119123R. Gnoevoy1.73118611102WSep 22 · 23:35V. Khamurda1.9111114882O. Naida1.80651111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Khamurda
Sep 28 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.91S. Skachenko1.80—Sep 28 · 02:25V. Khamurda2.20S. Abalmaz1.61—Sep 28 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61R. Gnoevoy2.20—Sep 28 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.91S. Skachenko1.80—Sep 28 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.61R. Gnoevoy2.20—Sep 29 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.50V. Panasenko1.50—Sep 29 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.83O. Naida1.83—Sep 29 · 03:25V. Khamurda2.20S. Abalmaz1.61—
O. Naida
Sep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.10D. Derevynskyi1.67—Sep 28 · 01:55O. Naida2.00R. Gnoevoy1.73—Sep 28 · 03:55O. Naida2.20S. Skachenko1.61—Sep 28 · 22:25O. Naida2.00R. Gnoevoy1.73—Sep 28 · 23:25O. Naida2.38V. Panasenko1.53—Sep 29 · 00:25O. Naida2.63S. Abalmaz1.44—Sep 29 · 02:25O. Naida1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Sep 29 · 04:25O. Naida2.20S. Skachenko1.61—
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