TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Boyko vs Mykyta Smyrnov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711511117811––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:54 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii Boyko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vitalii Boyko at 54.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 16–9 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Boyko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-9 in 25
Boyko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1529 vs Smyrnov 1475
Boyko
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 40% vs Smyrnov 20%
Boyko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 60% vs Smyrnov 20%
Boyko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko +1 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Boyko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 1.67 / Smyrnov 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Boyko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13190459
Boyko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 33 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Smyrnov2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko6wins
AwaySmyrnov4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBoyko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoyko60%3 of 5
AwaySmyrnov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S2Boyko3Smyrnov7n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S3Boyko5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Boyko4Smyrnov5n = 9Smyrnov took 5 of 9
S5Boyko5Smyrnov1n = 6Boyko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoSmyrnovB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.0+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 473 vs 407 / 84247.2%48.3%223 / 473 vs 407 / 842Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoykoBoyko 1.67/Smyrnov 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Boyko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko501071111113M. Smyrnov4012117642
WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko49111187123M. Smyrnov45581111102
LAug 22 · 02:30V. Boyko228950M. Smyrnov331111113
WJun 28 · 07:35V. Boyko49117119113M. Smyrnov3751141162
LJun 6 · 12:05V. Boyko4011811101M. Smyrnov4591113123
LMay 9 · 15:05V. Boyko4411712952M. Smyrnov507111011113
WMay 2 · 12:05V. Boyko4311129113M. Smyrnov328101131
LApr 19 · 06:05V. Boyko34671291M. Smyrnov43111110113
WApr 18 · 17:05V. Boyko46761111113M. Smyrnov4411118772
WMar 27 · 22:00V. Boyko46611711113M. Smyrnov4111911462
V. Boyko10
WSep 26 · 01:00V. Vlasenko2.1013881192V. Boyko1.671111118113LSep 25 · 23:00O. Napirko1.67661111113V. Boyko2.1011117972LSep 25 · 22:00V. Boyko2.3815161091R. Lazebnyi1.53131812113LSep 25 · 21:00O. Mitla2.00117116113V. Boyko1.7331181182WSep 19 · 18:05A. Shypilov1.73811991V. Boyko2.0011711113LSep 19 · 17:05V. Boyko2.383660O. Napirko1.531111113WSep 19 · 16:05V. Boyko2.201111912103R. Lazebnyi1.6179111482WSep 19 · 14:35V. Boyko1.57111114103V. Vlasenko2.251391251WSep 19 · 12:35V. Boyko2.5012118113N. Kovalchuk1.501071191WSep 13 · 10:35V. Boyko2.254131011123O. Napirko1.571111128112
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 26 · 01:30M. Smyrnov2.2096100R. Lazebnyi1.611111123WSep 25 · 23:30O. Mitla1.83491161M. Smyrnov1.8311115113LSep 25 · 21:30O. Napirko1.611111113M. Smyrnov2.209950LSep 25 · 20:30V. Vlasenko2.20715115173M. Smyrnov1.611113911152LSep 25 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi1.611118113M. Smyrnov2.2051630LSep 25 · 01:45M. Smyrnov2.007790O. Hura1.731111113LSep 24 · 23:45O. Mitla1.8311116113M. Smyrnov1.83991191WSep 24 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10991361M. Smyrnov1.67111111113LSep 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.2511411113M. Smyrnov1.57911881LSep 24 · 02:45M. Smyrnov2.104930O. Napirko1.671111113
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