Filip Zurek vs Roman Guliak 0-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava

Played Oct 12Finished

Filip Zurek

Home

1.55

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

91111131113––––

Roman Guliak

Away

2.30

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%

Graded at full time

Filip Zurek to win

60.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingFilip Zurek above · Roman Guliak below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 11-13

Point 68 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Filip Zurek at 60.5%

68 points played in total.

H2H Filip Zurek 12–10 Roman Guliak Roman Guliak has won 10 of their 22 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Zurek

Zurek 1.55/Guliak 2.30

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.5%

Zurek · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Guliak won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:26

60.5%Our read64.5%to break even at 1.55

short by 4.0pp

64.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.55 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.55 (60%)

Zurek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

12-10 in 22

Zurek

Wrong

gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Zurek 1454 vs Guliak 1414

Zurek

Wrong

both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zurek 60% vs Guliak 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zurek 50% vs Guliak 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Zurek +2 · Guliak +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Zurek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Guliak: form 60%, the price implies 43%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZurek 1.55 / Guliak 2.30

Signal prob.61% / 40%

Edge (Zurek)-4.0pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Zurek beat Guliak 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZurek7wins

AwayGuliak3wins

5 of 10 to a deciderZurek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZurek71.4%5 of 7

AwayGuliak33.3%1 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zurek7Guliak3n = 10Zurek took 7 of 10

S2Zurek7Guliak3n = 10Zurek took 7 of 10

S3Zurek4Guliak6n = 10Guliak took 6 of 10

S4Zurek5Guliak4n = 9Zurek took 5 of 9

S5Zurek3Guliak2n = 5Zurek took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricZurekGuliakZ − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.438.6+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZurekGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 662 vs 344 / 69650.6%49.4%335 / 662 vs 344 / 696Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13285865

Zurek1.55

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite57% won 95 of 166

Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51

Up 1–0, closes it74% 72 of 98

Guliak2.30

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog39% won 74 of 188

Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 111

Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 69

Filip Zurek vs Roman Guliak 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Filip Zurek vs Roman Guliak 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.