Jan Przybyla vs Dominik Pawlik 0-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 53 - H3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Przybyla

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

811111911––––

Dominik Pawlik

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:15 and never touched: 59.5% is still 59.5%

Graded at full time

Dominik Pawlik to win

59.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Dominik Pawlik below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 1-11

Set 3 · 9-11

Point 51 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Dominik Pawlik at 59.5%

51 points played in total.

H2H Jan Przybyla 6–11 Dominik Pawlik Jan Przybyla has won 6 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Pawlik

Przybyla 2.10/Pawlik 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

59.5%

Pawlik · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Pawlik won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:15

59.5%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 0.5pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Pawlik

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-11 in 17

Pawlik

Correct

gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Przybyla 1453 vs Pawlik 1480

Pawlik

Correct

both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Przybyla 40% vs Pawlik 60%

Pawlik

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Przybyla 40% vs Pawlik 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Przybyla +2 · Pawlik +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPrzybyla 2.10 / Pawlik 1.666

Signal prob.41% / 60%

Edge (Pawlik)-0.5pp

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Przybyla beat Pawlik 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePrzybyla4wins

AwayPawlik6wins

5 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePrzybyla100%3 of 3

AwayPawlik85.7%6 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Przybyla3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10

S2Przybyla5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly

S3Przybyla7Pawlik3n = 10Przybyla took 7 of 10

S4Przybyla3Pawlik4n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7

S5Przybyla2Pawlik3n = 5Pawlik took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricPrzybylaPawlikPrzybyla − PawlikBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.5−3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPrzybylaPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 478 vs 255 / 52751.1%48.4%244 / 478 vs 255 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match

TT Cup · #13285709

Przybyla2.10

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog47% won 53 of 112

Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 63

Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29

Pawlik1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite57% won 63 of 110

Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44

Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62

Jan Przybyla vs Dominik Pawlik 0-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Przybyla vs Dominik Pawlik 0-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.