Dominik Pawlik vs Jan Przybyla 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 53 - H3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Dominik Pawlik

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

711111911111811

Jan Przybyla

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%

Graded at full time

Dominik Pawlik to win

60.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Jan Przybyla below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-1

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-1

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 81 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Dominik Pawlik at 60.1%

81 points played in total.

H2H Dominik Pawlik 11–5 Jan Przybyla Jan Przybyla has won 5 of their 16 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Pawlik

Pawlik 1.57/Przybyla 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.1%

Pawlik · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Przybyla won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:40

60.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 3.6pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Pawlik

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

11-5 in 16

Pawlik

Wrong

gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Pawlik 1478 vs Przybyla 1427

Pawlik

Wrong

both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pawlik 60% vs Przybyla 40%

Pawlik

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pawlik 60% vs Przybyla 30%

Pawlik

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Pawlik +2 · Przybyla -3

Przybyla

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPawlik 1.571 / Przybyla 2.25

Signal prob.60% / 40%

Edge (Pawlik)-3.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePawlik7wins

AwayPrzybyla3wins

4 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePawlik87.5%7 of 8

AwayPrzybylan = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Pawlik8Przybyla2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10

S2Pawlik5Przybyla5n = 10split evenly

S3Pawlik4Przybyla6n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10

S4Pawlik3Przybyla3n = 6split evenly

S5Pawlik3Przybyla1n = 4Pawlik took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricPawlikPrzybylaPawlik − PrzybylaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.337.5+3.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPawlikPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 525 vs 242 / 47648.4%50.8%254 / 525 vs 242 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match

TT Cup · #13283395

Pawlik1.57

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite57% won 63 of 110

Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44

Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62

Przybyla2.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog47% won 53 of 112

Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 63

Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29

Dominik Pawlik vs Jan Przybyla 2-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Dominik Pawlik vs Jan Przybyla 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.