Dominik Pawlik vs Jakub Volny 3-0

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 53 - H3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Dominik Pawlik

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

14121181210––––

Jakub Volny

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%

Graded at full time

Dominik Pawlik to win

55.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Jakub Volny below

Set 1 · 14-12

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 12-10

Point 67 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Dominik Pawlik at 55.3%

67 points played in total.

H2H Dominik Pawlik 10–5 Jakub Volny Jakub Volny has won 5 of their 15 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Pawlik

Pawlik 1.73/Volny 2.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

55.3%

Pawlik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Pawlik won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:35

55.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 2.6pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Pawlik

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

10-5 in 15

Pawlik

Correct

gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Pawlik 1466 vs Volny 1457

Pawlik

Correct

both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pawlik 40% vs Volny 20%

Pawlik

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pawlik 50% vs Volny 30%

Pawlik

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Pawlik -1 · Volny -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Volny: form 20%, the price implies 50%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPawlik 1.727 / Volny 2.00

Signal prob.55% / 45%

Edge (Pawlik)-2.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePawlik6wins

AwayVolny4wins

4 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePawlik71.4%5 of 7

AwayVolny66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Pawlik7Volny3n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10

S2Pawlik6Volny4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10

S3Pawlik3Volny7n = 10Volny took 7 of 10

S4Pawlik7Volny0n = 7Pawlik took 7 of 7

S5Pawlik1Volny3n = 4Volny took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricPawlikVolnyP − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.136.0+5.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPawlikVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 526 vs 178 / 37648.3%47.3%254 / 526 vs 178 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match

TT Cup · #13283695

Pawlik1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite57% won 63 of 110

Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44

Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62

Volny2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog40% won 40 of 100

Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54

Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25

Dominik Pawlik vs Jakub Volny 3-0 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Dominik Pawlik vs Jakub Volny 3-0 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.