Adrian Wiecek vs Dmitrij Prokopcov 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 13Finished

Adrian Wiecek

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

811911114112811

Dmitrij Prokopcov

Away

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%

Graded at full time

Adrian Wiecek to win

60.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Dmitrij Prokopcov below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-2

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 86 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Adrian Wiecek at 60.5%

86 points played in total.

H2H Adrian Wiecek 4–0 Dmitrij Prokopcov Dmitrij Prokopcov has won 0 of their 4 meetings.

Last 4 · 4–0Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Wiecek

Wiecek 1.61/Prokopcov 2.20

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.5%

Wiecek · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Prokopcov won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 02:56

60.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 1.4pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Wiecek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-0 in 4

Wiecek

Wrong

gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Wiecek 1858 vs Prokopcov 1739

Wiecek

Wrong

both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Wiecek 60% vs Prokopcov 20%

Wiecek

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Wiecek 40% vs Prokopcov 10%

Wiecek

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Wiecek +1 · Prokopcov +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Wiecek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Prokopcov: form 20%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsWiecek 1.615 / Prokopcov 2.20

Signal prob.61% / 40%

Edge (Wiecek)-1.4pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 17h before this match

Wiecek beat Prokopcov 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 4 meetings

HomeWiecek4wins

AwayProkopcov0wins

1 of 4 to a deciderWiecek leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeWiecek100%3 of 3

AwayProkopcovn = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Wiecek3Prokopcov1n = 4Wiecek took 3 of 4

S2Wiecek3Prokopcov1n = 4Wiecek took 3 of 4

S3Wiecek3Prokopcov1n = 4Wiecek took 3 of 4

S4Wiecek2Prokopcov1n = 3Wiecek took 2 of 3

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home125%

3–1Four sets, home250%

3–2Decider, home125%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 4 meetings

MetricWiecekProkopcovW − PBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.836.0+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricWiecekProkopcovBasisWin rate · lifetime746 / 1360 vs 112 / 25554.9%43.9%746 / 1360 vs 112 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.1per match

TT Elite Series · #13284915

Wiecek1.61

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite64% won 161 of 250

Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62

Up 1–0, closes it81% 115 of 142

Prokopcov2.20

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog27% won 36 of 134

Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 78

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 48

Adrian Wiecek vs Dmitrij Prokopcov 2-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Adrian Wiecek vs Dmitrij Prokopcov 2-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.