Krzysztof Wloczko vs Adrian Wiecek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Krzysztof Wloczko

Home

2.63

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

711116511115115

Adrian Wiecek

Away

1.44

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:37 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%

Graded at full time

Adrian Wiecek to win

64.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingKrzysztof Wloczko above · Adrian Wiecek below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 11-5

Set 5 · 11-5

Point 83 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Adrian Wiecek at 64.9%

83 points played in total.

H2H Krzysztof Wloczko 22–35 Adrian Wiecek Krzysztof Wloczko has won 22 of their 57 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Wiecek

Wloczko 2.63/Wiecek 1.44

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

64.9%

Wiecek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Wloczko won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:37

64.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 4.4pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Wiecek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

22-35 in 57

Wiecek

Wrong

gap of 13 in 57, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Wloczko 1817 vs Wiecek 1843

Wiecek

Wrong

both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Wloczko 60% vs Wiecek 20%

Wloczko

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Wloczko 60% vs Wiecek 20%

Wloczko

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Wloczko +3 · Wiecek -4

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Wiecek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Wiecek: form 20%, the price implies 69%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsWloczko 2.625 / Wiecek 1.444

Signal prob.35% / 65%

Edge (Wiecek)-4.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeWloczko5wins

AwayWiecek5wins

5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeWloczko71.4%5 of 7

AwayWiecek100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Wloczko7Wiecek3n = 10Wloczko took 7 of 10

S2Wloczko5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly

S3Wloczko7Wiecek3n = 10Wloczko took 7 of 10

S4Wloczko4Wiecek4n = 8split evenly

S5Wloczko1Wiecek4n = 5Wiecek took 4 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricWloczkoWiecekWloczko − WiecekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.540.0+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricWloczkoWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime934 / 1782 vs 743 / 135552.4%54.8%934 / 1782 vs 743 / 1355Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.3per match

TT Elite Series · #13279813

Wloczko2.63

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog38% won 149 of 389

Down 0–1, comes back17% 37 of 215

Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 126

Wiecek1.44

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite64% won 161 of 250

Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62

Up 1–0, closes it81% 115 of 142

Krzysztof Wloczko vs Adrian Wiecek 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Krzysztof Wloczko vs Adrian Wiecek 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.