Tibor Spanik vs Adrian Wiecek 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Tibor Spanik

Home

1.91

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 5

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

9111315117511––

Adrian Wiecek

Away

1.80

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Tibor Spanik to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Adrian Wiecek below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 13-15

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 5-11

Point 82 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%

82 points played in total.

H2H Tibor Spanik 16–15 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 15 of their 31 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Spanik

Spanik 1.91/Wiecek 1.80

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Spanik · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Wiecek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:41

54.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909

clears by 1.6pp

52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Wiecek

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

16-15 in 31

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Spanik 1925 vs Wiecek 1844

Spanik

Wrong

both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Spanik 100% vs Wiecek 40%

Spanik

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Spanik 70% vs Wiecek 30%

Spanik

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Spanik +5 · Wiecek -1

Spanik

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Wiecek: form 40%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSpanik 1.909 / Wiecek 1.80

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Spanik)+1.6pp

Same-day rematch · 5h before this match

Spanik beat Wiecek 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSpanik6wins

AwayWiecek4wins

5 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSpanik100%3 of 3

AwayWiecek57.1%4 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Spanik3Wiecek7n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10

S2Spanik8Wiecek2n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10

S3Spanik6Wiecek4n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10

S4Spanik4Wiecek5n = 9Wiecek took 5 of 9

S5Spanik3Wiecek2n = 5Spanik took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricSpanikWiecekS − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.744.8+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSpanikWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 503 vs 745 / 135955.5%54.8%279 / 503 vs 745 / 1359Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.3per match

TT Elite Series · #13280613

Spanik1.91

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 5

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog47% won 47 of 101

Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 50

Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19

Wiecek1.80

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite64% won 161 of 250

Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62

Up 1–0, closes it81% 115 of 142

Tibor Spanik vs Adrian Wiecek 1-3 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tibor Spanik vs Adrian Wiecek 1-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.