Petr David vs Tibor Spanik 0-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Petr David

Home

1.40

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

9–1Last 10Won last 4

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

8117111012––––

Tibor Spanik

Away

2.75

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%

Graded at full time

Petr David to win

69.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPetr David above · Tibor Spanik below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 10-12

Point 59 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Petr David at 69.5%

59 points played in total.

H2H Petr David 12–7 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 7 of their 19 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

David

David 1.40/Spanik 2.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

69.5%

David · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Spanik won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:57

69.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 1.9pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

David

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

12-7 in 19

David

Wrong

gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

David 2020 vs Spanik 1890

David

Wrong

both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

David 80% vs Spanik 60%

David

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

David 90% vs Spanik 60%

David

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

David +4 · Spanik +2

David

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Spanik: form 60%, the price implies 36%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDavid 1.40 / Spanik 2.75

Signal prob.70% / 31%

Edge (David)-1.9pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

David beat Spanik 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDavid7wins

AwaySpanik3wins

3 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDavid83.3%5 of 6

AwaySpanik50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1David6Spanik4n = 10David took 6 of 10

S2David6Spanik4n = 10David took 6 of 10

S3David8Spanik2n = 10David took 8 of 10

S4David5Spanik2n = 7David took 5 of 7

S5David1Spanik2n = 3Spanik took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricDavidSpanikD − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.935.1+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDavidSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 999 vs 276 / 50066.4%55.2%663 / 999 vs 276 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.7per match

TT Elite Series · #13279765

David1.40

90%won 9 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite66% won 237 of 359

Up 2–0, closes it94% 117 of 124

Up 1–0, closes it81% 172 of 213

Spanik2.75

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog47% won 47 of 101

Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 50

Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19

Petr David vs Tibor Spanik 0-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Petr David vs Tibor Spanik 0-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.