TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Petas vs Tibor Spanik 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 65 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 12–18 Tibor Spanik Kacper Petas has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Petas beat Spanik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Spanik
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1956 vs Spanik 1867
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 70% vs Spanik 50%
Petas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +2 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 2.00 / Spanik 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275280
Petas2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 108 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 65
Spanik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 142 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 103 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas7wins
AwaySpanik3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPetas leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas80%4 of 5
AwaySpanik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S2Petas8Spanik2n = 10Petas took 8 of 10
S3Petas8Spanik2n = 10Petas took 8 of 10
S4Petas4Spanik3n = 7Petas took 4 of 7
S5Petas2Spanik3n = 5Spanik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasSpanikP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.4+4.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1275 vs 270 / 49053.2%55.1%678 / 1275 vs 270 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikPetas 2.00/Spanik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 08:05K. Petas569121113113T. Spanik45111461132
WOct 10 · 13:45K. Petas331111113T. Spanik219750
LOct 10 · 08:30K. Petas3811611552T. Spanik45711511113
WSep 28 · 11:15K. Petas4211119113T. Spanik30571171
WSep 28 · 03:00K. Petas331111113T. Spanik226970
WSep 27 · 09:00K. Petas341112113T. Spanik2171040
WSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas4061211113T. Spanik321110831
LSep 26 · 09:00K. Petas4051111762T. Spanik46115811113
WSep 26 · 08:05K. Petas561311138113T. Spanik52156111192
LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas3441121162T. Spanik50118119113
K. Petas10
WOct 11 · 09:40K. Petas2.201112113P. Cyrnek1.6191070WOct 11 · 08:05T. Spanik1.73111461132K. Petas2.009121113113LOct 11 · 07:20P. Cyrnek1.5781111113K. Petas2.25116891WOct 11 · 05:15S. Kolasa1.80119681K. Petas1.9151111113LOct 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731113113K. Petas2.0081140WOct 11 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.759840K. Petas1.251111113WOct 10 · 13:45K. Petas1.911111113T. Spanik1.809750LOct 10 · 12:30K. Petas1.67971171K. Kolodziej2.1011116113WOct 10 · 11:15K. Petas1.911213113S. Kolasa1.80101190WOct 10 · 10:00P. Cyrnek1.673880K. Petas2.101111113
T. Spanik10
WOct 11 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.633770T. Spanik1.441111113LOct 11 · 08:05T. Spanik1.73111461132K. Petas2.009121113113WOct 11 · 06:30S. Kolasa1.83811761T. Spanik1.8311911113WOct 11 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.385730T. Spanik1.531111113LOct 11 · 04:55T. Spanik2.10591151P. Cyrnek1.6711115113LOct 11 · 03:45T. Spanik1.8351181232M. Jadczyk1.831151110113LOct 10 · 13:45K. Petas1.911111113T. Spanik1.809750WOct 10 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.80712100T. Spanik1.911114123WOct 10 · 12:05T. Spanik1.5711116113G. Adamiak2.25531131LOct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik1.831171191S. Kolasa1.8351113113
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