TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Petas vs Szymon Kolasa 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101311119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 66 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Kacper Petas at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 14–14 Szymon Kolasa Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1154.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolasa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1939 vs Kolasa 1880
Petas
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Kolasa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 70% vs Kolasa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +2 · Kolasa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Petas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 1.909 / Kolasa 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Petas)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13268434
Petas1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 65
Kolasa1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 43 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas7wins
AwayKolasa3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPetas leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolasan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas7Kolasa2n = 9Petas took 7 of 9
S2Petas5Kolasa4n = 9Petas took 5 of 9
S3Petas5Kolasa4n = 9Petas took 5 of 9
S4Petas4Kolasa4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasKolasaP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match38.935.7+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1276 vs 249 / 46753.1%53.3%678 / 1276 vs 249 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PetasPetas 1.91/Kolasa 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Petas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 26 · 09:20K. Petas44111210113S. Kolasa326101241
LAug 26 · 04:10K. Petas4311613582S. Kolasa517111111113
LJul 30 · 06:55K. Petas32981141S. Kolasa3711114113
WFeb 10 · 13:25K. Petas4311129113S. Kolasa334101181
WFeb 10 · 06:05K. Petas331111113S. Kolasa257990
LOct 24 · 06:15K. Petas29169221S. Kolasa47141111113
WSep 7 · 13:40K. Petas46118115113S. Kolasa4281191132
WSep 7 · 09:35K. Petas4211119113S. Kolasa31481181
WSep 6 · 10:00K. Petas3851111113S. Kolasa23112641
K. Petas10
WOct 10 · 10:00P. Cyrnek1.673880K. Petas2.101111113WOct 10 · 09:20K. Petas1.251112113G. Adamiak3.7581080LOct 10 · 08:30K. Petas2.1011611552T. Spanik1.67711511113LOct 10 · 06:55K. Petas2.201112571P. Cyrnek1.6191411113WOct 10 · 05:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75931121WOct 10 · 04:10K. Petas1.671112113D. Michna2.1071080WOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981LSep 28 · 13:45K. Petas2.209111091M. Jadczyk1.6111812113WSep 28 · 12:30K. Petas1.61791112113G. Felkel2.20111191092WSep 28 · 11:15K. Petas2.1011119113T. Spanik1.67571171
S. Kolasa10
WOct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik1.831171191S. Kolasa1.8351113113LOct 10 · 09:00P. Cyrnek1.57117811113S. Kolasa2.2581111582WOct 10 · 08:05G. Adamiak2.5084111192S. Kolasa1.50111188113WOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113LOct 10 · 05:15D. Michna1.6710111110113S. Kolasa2.1012991292WOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113LOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981WSep 24 · 14:10S. Kolasa1.9112118133J. Zandecki1.8010911111LSep 24 · 12:30A. Daniel2.25891211113S. Kolasa1.57111110782WSep 24 · 11:40P. David1.53881191S. Kolasa2.3811115113
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