TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tibor Spanik vs Szymon Kolasa 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1157111113911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 3–3 Szymon Kolasa Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kolasa beat Spanik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1554.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolasa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1859 vs Kolasa 1880
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Kolasa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Kolasa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik -1 · Kolasa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.833 / Kolasa 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spanik)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13268709
Spanik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kolasa1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSpanik3wins
AwayKolasa3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik66.7%2 of 3
AwayKolasa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik3Kolasa3n = 6split evenly
S2Spanik4Kolasa2n = 6Spanik took 4 of 6
S3Spanik3Kolasa3n = 6split evenly
S4Spanik3Kolasa2n = 5Spanik took 3 of 5
S5Spanik1Kolasa2n = 3Kolasa took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSpanikKolasaS − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.839.5+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 481 vs 249 / 46755.1%53.3%265 / 481 vs 249 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.83/Kolasa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik381171191S. Kolasa4051113113
LOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik45106111172S. Kolasa47121185113
WJun 19 · 03:45T. Spanik50131178113S. Kolasa47118111162
LApr 10 · 06:40T. Spanik528111211102S. Kolasa44115142123
WMar 30 · 11:10T. Spanik45101111133S. Kolasa371268111
WMar 30 · 06:40T. Spanik331111113S. Kolasa225890
T. Spanik10
LOct 10 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.3851111113T. Spanik1.53118971WOct 10 · 08:30K. Petas2.1011611552T. Spanik1.67711511113LOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113WOct 10 · 06:05P. Cyrnek1.6791111182T. Spanik2.10111178113WOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak2.25127681T. Spanik1.57101111113LOct 10 · 03:25D. Michna1.671081111113T. Spanik2.1012117942WOct 2 · 17:09T. Spanik2.38136125103M. Obeslo1.531111101122WSep 28 · 14:10G. Felkel1.83711741T. Spanik1.8311311113WSep 28 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.735101191T. Spanik2.0011129113LSep 28 · 11:15K. Petas2.1011119113T. Spanik1.67571171
S. Kolasa10
LOct 10 · 09:00P. Cyrnek1.57117811113S. Kolasa2.2581111582WOct 10 · 08:05G. Adamiak2.5084111192S. Kolasa1.50111188113WOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113LOct 10 · 05:15D. Michna1.6710111110113S. Kolasa2.1012991292WOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113LOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981WSep 24 · 14:10S. Kolasa1.9112118133J. Zandecki1.8010911111LSep 24 · 12:30A. Daniel2.25891211113S. Kolasa1.57111110782WSep 24 · 11:40P. David1.53881191S. Kolasa2.3811115113WSep 24 · 10:50S. Kolasa1.6711117123K. Kolodziej2.105911101
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.