TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Cyrnek vs Tibor Spanik 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911111117118811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 55.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 3–2 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0055.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cyrnek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1911 vs Spanik 1873
Cyrnek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 40% vs Spanik 80%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek -1 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Cyrnek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.666 / Spanik 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Cyrnek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13268808
Cyrnek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 64 of 85
Spanik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 46 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCyrnek3wins
AwaySpanik2wins
4 of 5 to a deciderCyrnek leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrnekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySpanik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrnek0Spanik5n = 5Spanik took 5 of 5
S2Cyrnek1Spanik4n = 5Spanik took 4 of 5
S3Cyrnek5Spanik0n = 5Cyrnek took 5 of 5
S4Cyrnek3Spanik2n = 5Cyrnek took 3 of 5
S5Cyrnek3Spanik1n = 4Cyrnek took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricCyrnekSpanikC − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match46.446.0+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 363 vs 264 / 47857.3%55.2%208 / 363 vs 264 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.67/Spanik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 10 · 06:05P. Cyrnek4091111182T. Spanik48111178113
WApr 27 · 15:10P. Cyrnek579141111123T. Spanik50111649102
WApr 27 · 05:25P. Cyrnek481141111113T. Spanik4513117682
WApr 26 · 10:00P. Cyrnek52912119113T. Spanik44111051172
LApr 26 · 09:10P. Cyrnek358101161T. Spanik4311129113
P. Cyrnek10
WOct 10 · 06:55K. Petas2.201112571P. Cyrnek1.6191411113LOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113WOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 21 · 18:54P. Cyrnek1.80791181M. Elbeiali1.9111114113WSep 21 · 16:18P. Cyrnek1.041111103I. Hencl9.006640LSep 2 · 13:45P. Cyrnek1.5711711772M. Jadczyk2.25611911113WSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:15P. Cyrnek1.50715118132K. Wloczko2.501113811153WSep 2 · 10:00P. David1.5011119972P. Cyrnek2.50861111113WSep 2 · 09:20P. Cyrnek1.4411511113K. Kolodziej2.63711781
T. Spanik10
LOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113WOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak2.25127681T. Spanik1.57101111113LOct 10 · 03:25D. Michna1.671081111113T. Spanik2.1012117942WOct 2 · 17:09T. Spanik2.38136125103M. Obeslo1.531111101122WSep 28 · 14:10G. Felkel1.83711741T. Spanik1.8311311113WSep 28 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.735101191T. Spanik2.0011129113LSep 28 · 11:15K. Petas2.1011119113T. Spanik1.67571171WSep 28 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.206950T. Spanik1.611111113LSep 28 · 09:00P. Chodorski1.831111123T. Spanik1.8325100WSep 28 · 08:05P. Chodorski1.83911831T. Spanik1.8311411113
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