TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Petas vs Tibor Spanik 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Kacper Petas @ 1.91 · Won
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-5
Point 31 set 2, 6-5 · our read held Kacper Petas at 54.0%
31 points drawn · the score is 23 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Kacper Petas 10–18 Tibor Spanik Kacper Petas has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Spanik beat Petas 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 12:46Sent to Pro: Kacper Petas @ 1.91 · Won
54.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1935 vs Spanik 1860
Petas
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas -1 · Spanik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Petas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 1.909 / Spanik 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Petas)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13268796
Petas1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 65
Spanik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 141 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it95% 69 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 103 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas6wins
AwaySpanik4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPetas leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas80%4 of 5
AwaySpanik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S2Petas8Spanik2n = 10Petas took 8 of 10
S3Petas6Spanik4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S4Petas3Spanik4n = 7Spanik took 4 of 7
S5Petas2Spanik3n = 5Spanik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasSpanikP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.5+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1276 vs 267 / 48353.1%55.3%678 / 1276 vs 267 / 483Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PetasPetas 1.91/Spanik 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Petas · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Kacper Petas @ 1.91 · Won
What happened
3–0
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 08:30K. Petas3811611552T. Spanik45711511113
WSep 28 · 11:15K. Petas4211119113T. Spanik30571171
WSep 28 · 03:00K. Petas331111113T. Spanik226970
WSep 27 · 09:00K. Petas341112113T. Spanik2171040
WSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas4061211113T. Spanik321110831
LSep 26 · 09:00K. Petas4051111762T. Spanik46115811113
WSep 26 · 08:05K. Petas561311138113T. Spanik52156111192
LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas3441121162T. Spanik50118119113
LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2791080T. Spanik341112113
WAug 31 · 12:30K. Petas551312613113T. Spanik531110111562
K. Petas10
LOct 10 · 12:30K. Petas1.67971171K. Kolodziej2.1011116113WOct 10 · 11:15K. Petas1.911213113S. Kolasa1.80101190WOct 10 · 10:00P. Cyrnek1.673880K. Petas2.101111113WOct 10 · 09:20K. Petas1.251112113G. Adamiak3.7581080LOct 10 · 08:30K. Petas2.1011611552T. Spanik1.67711511113LOct 10 · 06:55K. Petas2.201112571P. Cyrnek1.6191411113WOct 10 · 05:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75931121WOct 10 · 04:10K. Petas1.671112113D. Michna2.1071080WOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981LSep 28 · 13:45K. Petas2.209111091M. Jadczyk1.6111812113
T. Spanik10
WOct 10 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.80712100T. Spanik1.911114123WOct 10 · 12:05T. Spanik1.5711116113G. Adamiak2.25531131LOct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik1.831171191S. Kolasa1.8351113113LOct 10 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.3851111113T. Spanik1.53118971WOct 10 · 08:30K. Petas2.1011611552T. Spanik1.67711511113LOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113WOct 10 · 06:05P. Cyrnek1.6791111182T. Spanik2.10111178113WOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak2.25127681T. Spanik1.57101111113LOct 10 · 03:25D. Michna1.671081111113T. Spanik2.1012117942WOct 2 · 17:09T. Spanik2.38136125103M. Obeslo1.531111101122
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