TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Adamiak vs Tibor Spanik 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 11
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311711711––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Tibor Spanik at 68.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 5–10 Tibor Spanik Grzegorz Adamiak has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1768.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Spanik
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1664 vs Spanik 1860
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 0% vs Spanik 40%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 0% vs Spanik 40%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -11 · Spanik -1
Adamiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Spanik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 2.625 / Spanik 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Spanik)-0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13275486
Adamiak2.63
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 11
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 62 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 102
Spanik1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 142 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 103 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak3wins
AwaySpanik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySpanik75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak2Spanik8n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S2Adamiak2Spanik8n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S3Adamiak5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamiak4Spanik4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamiak2Spanik1n = 3Adamiak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakSpanikA − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.640.3−6.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 771 vs 269 / 48942.3%55%326 / 771 vs 269 / 489Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikAdamiak 2.63/Spanik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 05:40G. Adamiak155730T. Spanik331111113
LOct 10 · 12:05G. Adamiak22531131T. Spanik3911116113
LOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak33127681T. Spanik43101111113
LSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak204790T. Spanik331111113
LSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak32911391T. Spanik4211911113
WSep 26 · 10:00G. Adamiak44561111113T. Spanik4211119562
LSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak37891191T. Spanik4211119113
LApr 26 · 15:10G. Adamiak4387111522T. Spanik541111813113
WApr 26 · 08:25G. Adamiak4391112113T. Spanik351181061
WApr 25 · 10:00G. Adamiak47119511113T. Spanik4071111562
G. Adamiak10
LOct 11 · 10:00K. Kolodziej1.7381111113G. Adamiak2.00119161LOct 11 · 08:30G. Adamiak3.40116991P. Cyrnek1.3071111113LOct 11 · 06:55G. Adamiak2.756470M. Jadczyk1.401111113LOct 11 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.385730T. Spanik1.531111113LOct 11 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.2085100S. Kolasa1.611111123LOct 11 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.759840K. Petas1.251111113LOct 10 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.3091111133G. Adamiak3.401199111LOct 10 · 13:20G. Adamiak2.5078121152S. Kolasa1.501111109113LOct 10 · 12:05T. Spanik1.5711116113G. Adamiak2.25531131LOct 10 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.61811711123G. Adamiak2.20115116102
T. Spanik10
WOct 11 · 10:50K. Petas2.0012890T. Spanik1.731411113LOct 11 · 08:05T. Spanik1.73111461132K. Petas2.009121113113WOct 11 · 06:30S. Kolasa1.83811761T. Spanik1.8311911113WOct 11 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.385730T. Spanik1.531111113LOct 11 · 04:55T. Spanik2.10591151P. Cyrnek1.6711115113LOct 11 · 03:45T. Spanik1.8351181232M. Jadczyk1.831151110113LOct 10 · 13:45K. Petas1.911111113T. Spanik1.809750WOct 10 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.80712100T. Spanik1.911114123WOct 10 · 12:05T. Spanik1.5711116113G. Adamiak2.25531131LOct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik1.831171191S. Kolasa1.8351113113
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