TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Cyrnek vs Grzegorz Adamiak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191191311––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:32 and never touched: 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 84 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 73.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 9–3 Grzegorz Adamiak Grzegorz Adamiak has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3273.5%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 3.4pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Cyrnek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Cyrnek
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1885 vs Adamiak 1726
Cyrnek
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 40% vs Adamiak 0%
Cyrnek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 40% vs Adamiak 10%
Cyrnek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek -3 · Adamiak -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Cyrnek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.30 / Adamiak 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 27%
Edge (Cyrnek)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13268669
Cyrnek1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 64 of 85
Adamiak3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 61 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCyrnek7wins
AwayAdamiak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCyrnek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrnek71.4%5 of 7
AwayAdamiak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrnek7Adamiak3n = 10Cyrnek took 7 of 10
S2Cyrnek7Adamiak3n = 10Cyrnek took 7 of 10
S3Cyrnek7Adamiak3n = 10Cyrnek took 7 of 10
S4Cyrnek3Adamiak3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCyrnekAdamiakC − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.332.9+4.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 368 vs 326 / 76557.1%42.6%210 / 368 vs 326 / 765Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.935.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.30/Adamiak 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cyrnek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 03:45P. Cyrnek331111113G. Adamiak248880
WJul 3 · 05:15P. Cyrnek331111113G. Adamiak196580
LApr 26 · 12:50P. Cyrnek3851110121G. Adamiak4611912143
LApr 26 · 05:50P. Cyrnek26114831G. Adamiak4291111113
WMay 25 · 10:00P. Cyrnek371511113G. Adamiak2613580
WMay 25 · 09:10P. Cyrnek4291111113G. Adamiak32116871
LMay 4 · 14:30P. Cyrnek4211691152G. Adamiak46511118113
WMay 4 · 07:40P. Cyrnek331111113G. Adamiak229940
WApr 13 · 07:40P. Cyrnek49119117113G. Adamiak3941151182
WMar 23 · 05:20P. Cyrnek4071111113G. Adamiak33117691
P. Cyrnek10
LOct 10 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.80712100T. Spanik1.911114123LOct 10 · 11:40P. Cyrnek1.40911971K. Kolodziej2.7511711113LOct 10 · 10:00P. Cyrnek1.673880K. Petas2.101111113WOct 10 · 09:00P. Cyrnek1.57117811113S. Kolasa2.2581111582WOct 10 · 07:45D. Michna1.9311681382P. Cyrnek1.774111111113WOct 10 · 06:55K. Petas2.201112571P. Cyrnek1.6191411113LOct 10 · 06:05P. Cyrnek1.6791111182T. Spanik2.10111178113LOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113WOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 21 · 18:54P. Cyrnek1.80791181M. Elbeiali1.9111114113
G. Adamiak10
LOct 10 · 13:20G. Adamiak2.5078121152S. Kolasa1.501111109113LOct 10 · 12:05T. Spanik1.5711116113G. Adamiak2.25531131LOct 10 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.61811711123G. Adamiak2.20115116102LOct 10 · 09:20K. Petas1.251112113G. Adamiak3.7581080LOct 10 · 08:05G. Adamiak2.5084111192S. Kolasa1.50111188113WOct 10 · 06:30D. Michna1.53611115102G. Adamiak2.38117911123LOct 10 · 05:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75931121LOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak2.25127681T. Spanik1.57101111113LOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak2.254790T. Spanik1.571111113
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