TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Cyrnek vs Krystian Kolodziej 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117911711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 67.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 5–0 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3367.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cyrnek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Cyrnek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1916 vs Kolodziej 1819
Cyrnek
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 60% vs Kolodziej 80%
Kolodziej
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 50% vs Kolodziej 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek -1 · Kolodziej +3
Kolodziej
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Cyrnek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.40 / Kolodziej 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Cyrnek)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13268617
Cyrnek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 64 of 85
Kolodziej2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back15% 18 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCyrnek5wins
AwayKolodziej0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderCyrnek leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrnek100%5 of 5
AwayKolodziejn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrnek5Kolodziej0n = 5Cyrnek took 5 of 5
S2Cyrnek3Kolodziej2n = 5Cyrnek took 3 of 5
S3Cyrnek4Kolodziej1n = 5Cyrnek took 4 of 5
S4Cyrnek2Kolodziej1n = 3Cyrnek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricCyrnekKolodziejC − KBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match39.631.0+8.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 366 vs 1252 / 187557.4%66.8%210 / 366 vs 1252 / 1875Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.40/Kolodziej 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 09:20P. Cyrnek3811511113K. Kolodziej33711781
WSep 1 · 11:40P. Cyrnek471211103113K. Kolodziej49107121192
WJul 24 · 11:15P. Cyrnek4111811113K. Kolodziej27611551
WJul 3 · 15:25P. Cyrnek331111113K. Kolodziej168350
WSep 2 · 15:55P. Cyrnek391116123K. Kolodziej30614100
P. Cyrnek10
LOct 10 · 10:00P. Cyrnek1.673880K. Petas2.101111113WOct 10 · 09:00P. Cyrnek1.57117811113S. Kolasa2.2581111582WOct 10 · 07:45D. Michna1.9311681382P. Cyrnek1.774111111113WOct 10 · 06:55K. Petas2.201112571P. Cyrnek1.6191411113LOct 10 · 06:05P. Cyrnek1.6791111182T. Spanik2.10111178113LOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113WOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 21 · 18:54P. Cyrnek1.80791181M. Elbeiali1.9111114113WSep 21 · 16:18P. Cyrnek1.041111103I. Hencl9.006640LSep 2 · 13:45P. Cyrnek1.5711711772M. Jadczyk2.25611911113
K. Kolodziej10
WOct 10 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.61811711123G. Adamiak2.20115116102WOct 10 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.3851111113T. Spanik1.53118971WOct 9 · 14:15K. Kolodziej1.151111113M. Rutkowski5.007860LOct 9 · 12:35P. Jendrzejewski2.67931111113K. Kolodziej1.4211119972WOct 9 · 11:45J. Braun1.78711791K. Kolodziej1.9311711113LOct 9 · 10:55K. Kolodziej1.851181141P. Klos1.8013114113LOct 9 · 09:45K. Kolodziej1.851081181J. Kuzmicz1.8012114113WOct 5 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.00111111113J. Kuzmicz1.73139961WOct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40117111172K. Kolodziej2.75131138113LOct 5 · 11:40G. Felkel1.5761111163K. Kolodziej2.251139141
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