TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Cyrnek vs Tibor Spanik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171311611119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 55.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 4–3 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0055.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cyrnek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1897 vs Spanik 1884
Cyrnek
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 60% vs Spanik 80%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 50% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek -2 · Spanik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Cyrnek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.615 / Spanik 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Cyrnek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275711
Cyrnek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 92 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it75% 65 of 87
Spanik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 47 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeCyrnek4wins
AwaySpanik3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderCyrnek leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrnekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySpanik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrnek1Spanik6n = 7Spanik took 6 of 7
S2Cyrnek2Spanik5n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S3Cyrnek5Spanik2n = 7Cyrnek took 5 of 7
S4Cyrnek4Spanik2n = 6Cyrnek took 4 of 6
S5Cyrnek3Spanik1n = 4Cyrnek took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricCyrnekSpanikC − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match42.742.4+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 376 vs 271 / 49157.2%55.2%215 / 376 vs 271 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.61/Spanik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cyrnek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 11 · 04:55P. Cyrnek3811115113T. Spanik30591151
LOct 10 · 12:55P. Cyrnek29712100T. Spanik371114123
LOct 10 · 06:05P. Cyrnek4091111182T. Spanik48111178113
WApr 27 · 15:10P. Cyrnek579141111123T. Spanik50111649102
WApr 27 · 05:25P. Cyrnek481141111113T. Spanik4513117682
WApr 26 · 10:00P. Cyrnek52912119113T. Spanik44111051172
LApr 26 · 09:10P. Cyrnek358101161T. Spanik4311129113
P. Cyrnek10
WOct 11 · 13:45G. Adamiak4.00971241P. Cyrnek1.22111110113WOct 11 · 12:55K. Kolodziej2.7511861142P. Cyrnek1.40611117103LOct 11 · 10:25P. Cyrnek1.6151111992S. Kolasa2.20115711113LOct 11 · 09:40K. Petas2.201112113P. Cyrnek1.6191070WOct 11 · 08:30G. Adamiak3.40116991P. Cyrnek1.3071111113WOct 11 · 07:20P. Cyrnek1.5781111113K. Petas2.25116891WOct 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.256119101P. Cyrnek1.5711811123WOct 11 · 04:55T. Spanik2.10591151P. Cyrnek1.6711115113LOct 11 · 03:25S. Kolasa2.10981111113P. Cyrnek1.6711115892WOct 10 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.3091111133G. Adamiak3.401199111
T. Spanik10
WOct 11 · 13:20T. Spanik1.80146711113S. Kolasa1.91121111872WOct 11 · 10:50K. Petas2.0012890T. Spanik1.731411113WOct 11 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.633770T. Spanik1.441111113LOct 11 · 08:05T. Spanik1.73111461132K. Petas2.009121113113WOct 11 · 06:30S. Kolasa1.83811761T. Spanik1.8311911113WOct 11 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.385730T. Spanik1.531111113LOct 11 · 04:55T. Spanik2.10591151P. Cyrnek1.6711115113LOct 11 · 03:45T. Spanik1.8351181232M. Jadczyk1.831151110113LOct 10 · 13:45K. Petas1.911111113T. Spanik1.809750WOct 10 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.80712100T. Spanik1.911114123
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