TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Piotr Cyrnek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811611117410
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Piotr Cyrnek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-10
Point 85 set 5, 4-10 · our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 67.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 1–5 Piotr Cyrnek Krystian Kolodziej has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5467.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cyrnek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Cyrnek
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1879 vs Cyrnek 1908
Cyrnek
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 80% vs Cyrnek 60%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 80% vs Cyrnek 60%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej -1 · Cyrnek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Cyrnek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrnek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 2.75 / Cyrnek 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Cyrnek)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275277
Kolodziej2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 76 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back15% 18 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Cyrnek1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 92 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it75% 65 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolodziej1wins
AwayCyrnek5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderCyrnek leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziejn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCyrnek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej1Cyrnek5n = 6Cyrnek took 5 of 6
S2Kolodziej2Cyrnek4n = 6Cyrnek took 4 of 6
S3Kolodziej2Cyrnek4n = 6Cyrnek took 4 of 6
S4Kolodziej2Cyrnek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolodziejCyrnekK − CBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match32.539.0−6.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejCyrnekBasisWin rate · lifetime1261 / 1886 vs 216 / 37766.9%57.3%1261 / 1886 vs 216 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekKolodziej 2.75/Cyrnek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cyrnek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 10 · 11:40K. Kolodziej4011711113P. Cyrnek36911971
LSep 2 · 09:20K. Kolodziej33711781P. Cyrnek3811511113
LSep 1 · 11:40K. Kolodziej49107121192P. Cyrnek471211103113
LJul 24 · 11:15K. Kolodziej27611551P. Cyrnek4111811113
LJul 3 · 15:25K. Kolodziej168350P. Cyrnek331111113
LSep 2 · 15:55K. Kolodziej30614100P. Cyrnek391116123
K. Kolodziej10
LOct 11 · 11:40K. Kolodziej2.00511641K. Petas1.7311911113WOct 11 · 10:00K. Kolodziej1.7381111113G. Adamiak2.00119161WOct 11 · 09:00K. Kolodziej2.1041111113S. Kolasa1.67119631WOct 10 · 20:05F. Mlynarski2.75811531K. Kolodziej1.4011811113WOct 10 · 19:15D. Jadam3.254430K. Kolodziej1.331111113WOct 10 · 17:20J. Chmielowski3.407550K. Kolodziej1.301111113WOct 10 · 16:30M. Kolek4.506115141K. Kolodziej1.1711811163LOct 10 · 15:00S. Sporek1.911111113K. Kolodziej1.809650WOct 10 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.00114134113S. Kolasa1.73811111172WOct 10 · 12:30K. Petas1.67971171K. Kolodziej2.1011116113
P. Cyrnek10
WOct 11 · 13:45G. Adamiak4.00971241P. Cyrnek1.22111110113WOct 11 · 12:05P. Cyrnek1.6111136113T. Spanik2.207111191LOct 11 · 10:25P. Cyrnek1.6151111992S. Kolasa2.20115711113LOct 11 · 09:40K. Petas2.201112113P. Cyrnek1.6191070WOct 11 · 08:30G. Adamiak3.40116991P. Cyrnek1.3071111113WOct 11 · 07:20P. Cyrnek1.5781111113K. Petas2.25116891WOct 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.256119101P. Cyrnek1.5711811123WOct 11 · 04:55T. Spanik2.10591151P. Cyrnek1.6711115113LOct 11 · 03:25S. Kolasa2.10981111113P. Cyrnek1.6711115892WOct 10 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.3091111133G. Adamiak3.401199111
Upcoming Matches
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P. Cyrnek
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