TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Szymon Kolasa 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1184111311411117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 1-2
Point 76 set 5, 1-2 · our read held Szymon Kolasa at 54.0%
76 points drawn · the score is 15 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 2–11 Szymon Kolasa Krystian Kolodziej has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolasa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Kolasa
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1840 vs Kolasa 1886
Kolasa
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 100% vs Kolasa 60%
Kolodziej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 70% vs Kolasa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +5 · Kolasa +1
Kolodziej
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolasa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 2.00 / Kolasa 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolasa)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13268672
Kolodziej2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back15% 18 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Kolasa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 43 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej2wins
AwayKolasa8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej33.3%2 of 6
AwayKolasa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej6Kolasa4n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S2Kolodziej2Kolasa8n = 10Kolasa took 8 of 10
S3Kolodziej1Kolasa9n = 10Kolasa took 9 of 10
S4Kolodziej5Kolasa3n = 8Kolodziej took 5 of 8
S5Kolodziej2Kolasa4n = 6Kolasa took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejKolasaKolodziej − KolasaBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.0−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime1254 / 1877 vs 250 / 46766.8%53.5%1254 / 1877 vs 250 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaKolodziej 2.00/Kolasa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 10:50K. Kolodziej355911101S. Kolasa4111117123
WSep 23 · 13:20K. Kolodziej47115911113S. Kolasa3651111632
LSep 7 · 12:30K. Kolodziej3811251282S. Kolasa474111110113
LAug 27 · 12:05K. Kolodziej47118711102S. Kolasa49611119123
LJul 30 · 11:40K. Kolodziej4011571162S. Kolasa41511113113
LJul 2 · 09:00K. Kolodziej2510690S. Kolasa341211113
LJan 23 · 20:25K. Kolodziej4181112101S. Kolasa4011314123
WOct 10 · 16:20K. Kolodziej511112611113S. Kolasa48810111362
LAug 24 · 20:40K. Kolodziej3099120S. Kolasa361111143
LAug 17 · 19:50K. Kolodziej4211671172S. Kolasa48711118113
K. Kolodziej10
LOct 10 · 15:00S. Sporek1.911111113K. Kolodziej1.809650WOct 10 · 12:30K. Petas1.67971171K. Kolodziej2.1011116113WOct 10 · 11:40P. Cyrnek1.40911971K. Kolodziej2.7511711113WOct 10 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.61811711123G. Adamiak2.20115116102WOct 10 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.3851111113T. Spanik1.53118971WOct 9 · 14:15K. Kolodziej1.151111113M. Rutkowski5.007860LOct 9 · 12:35P. Jendrzejewski2.67931111113K. Kolodziej1.4211119972WOct 9 · 11:45J. Braun1.78711791K. Kolodziej1.9311711113LOct 9 · 10:55K. Kolodziej1.851181141P. Klos1.8013114113LOct 9 · 09:45K. Kolodziej1.851081181J. Kuzmicz1.8012114113
S. Kolasa10
WOct 10 · 13:20G. Adamiak2.5078121152S. Kolasa1.501111109113LOct 10 · 11:15K. Petas1.911213113S. Kolasa1.80101190WOct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik1.831171191S. Kolasa1.8351113113LOct 10 · 09:00P. Cyrnek1.57117811113S. Kolasa2.2581111582WOct 10 · 08:05G. Adamiak2.5084111192S. Kolasa1.50111188113WOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113LOct 10 · 05:15D. Michna1.6710111110113S. Kolasa2.1012991292WOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113LOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981WSep 24 · 14:10S. Kolasa1.9112118133J. Zandecki1.8010911111
Upcoming Matches
K. Kolodziej
Oct 10 · 16:30K. Kolodziej1.17M. Kolek4.50—Oct 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.36J. Chmielowski3.00—Oct 10 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.50D. Jadam2.50—Oct 10 · 20:05K. Kolodziej1.40F. Mlynarski2.75—Oct 11 · 09:00K. Kolodziej—S. Kolasa——Oct 11 · 14:35K. Kolodziej—T. Spanik——Oct 11 · 15:25K. Kolodziej—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 16:05K. Kolodziej—F. Mlynarski——Oct 11 · 18:30K. Kolodziej—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 19:40K. Kolodziej—J. Chmielowski——
S. Kolasa
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