Adam Kosacky vs Michal Brozek 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 8 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Adam Kosacky

Home

1.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

71181112101311611

Michal Brozek

Away

2.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%

Graded at full time

Adam Kosacky to win

63.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAdam Kosacky above · Michal Brozek below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 13-11

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 100 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Adam Kosacky at 63.7%

100 points played in total.

H2H Adam Kosacky 101–44 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 44 of their 145 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kosacky

Kosacky 1.50/Brozek 2.50

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

63.7%

Kosacky · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Brozek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:16

63.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 3.0pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Kosacky

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

101-44 in 145

Kosacky

Wrong

gap of 57 in 145, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kosacky 1638 vs Brozek 1609

Kosacky

Wrong

both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kosacky 40% vs Brozek 20%

Kosacky

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kosacky 30% vs Brozek 30%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kosacky +2 · Brozek -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kosacky) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Brozek: form 20%, the price implies 40%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKosacky 1.50 / Brozek 2.50

Signal prob.64% / 36%

Edge (Kosacky)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKosacky4wins

AwayBrozek6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKosacky66.7%4 of 6

AwayBrozek100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kosacky6Brozek4n = 10Kosacky took 6 of 10

S2Kosacky4Brozek6n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10

S3Kosacky5Brozek5n = 10split evenly

S4Kosacky2Brozek3n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricKosackyBrozekK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.135.3−1.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKosackyBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 608 vs 519 / 100155.6%51.9%338 / 608 vs 519 / 1001Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match

TT Cup · #13283706

Kosacky1.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite62% won 57 of 92

Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35

Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61

Brozek2.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 68 of 171

Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 83

Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44

Adam Kosacky vs Michal Brozek 2-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Adam Kosacky vs Michal Brozek 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.