TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kosacky vs Martin Cerny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113511119311811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:23 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kosacky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 83 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Martin Cerny at 69.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kosacky 32–54 Martin Cerny Adam Kosacky has won 32 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2369.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-54 in 86
Cerny
Correct
gap of 22 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosacky 1632 vs Cerny 1704
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosacky 20% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosacky 20% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosacky -1 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosacky 2.75 / Cerny 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Cerny)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13278918
Kosacky2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 21 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Cerny1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 172 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it96% 88 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it84% 124 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosacky1wins
AwayCerny9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosacky25%1 of 4
AwayCerny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosacky4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Kosacky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Kosacky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Kosacky2Cerny4n = 6Cerny took 4 of 6
S5Kosacky0Cerny3n = 3Cerny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosackyCernyK − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.840.6−7.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosackyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 603 vs 509 / 87855.7%58%336 / 603 vs 509 / 878Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyKosacky 2.75/Cerny 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 2 · 16:55A. Kosacky205690M. Cerny331111113
LMay 30 · 21:25A. Kosacky28136181M. Cerny44111111113
LMay 28 · 11:20A. Kosacky41311101162M. Cerny44117123113
LMay 9 · 17:25A. Kosacky4161111852M. Cerny49118811113
LMay 8 · 18:55A. Kosacky561111915102M. Cerny55871117123
LMay 3 · 13:55A. Kosacky205780M. Cerny331111113
LMay 3 · 11:55A. Kosacky33149100M. Cerny391611123
WApr 30 · 12:50A. Kosacky3411111113M. Cerny34911861
LApr 29 · 22:15A. Kosacky331129111M. Cerny4271111133
LApr 29 · 18:55A. Kosacky229940M. Cerny331111113
A. Kosacky10
LOct 11 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.4481212113A. Kosacky2.6311101071LOct 11 · 18:14A. Kosacky2.1011117742P. Vanek1.67661111113WOct 11 · 16:55P. Vanek1.53511941A. Kosacky2.3811811113LOct 11 · 16:25J. Kocab2.101111113A. Kosacky1.677920LOct 11 · 15:25A. Kosacky1.8371213552J. Benak1.8311101111113LOct 9 · 22:03M. Brozek2.5011121111113A. Kosacky1.5071413292LOct 9 · 21:25M. Brozek2.251111311133A. Kosacky1.57138115112LOct 9 · 20:25A. Kosacky1.44911136102M. Kulisek2.631171111123LOct 9 · 18:55P. Benes2.1071311113A. Kosacky1.671111551LOct 9 · 10:34V. Nadvornik1.7391218113A. Kosacky2.0011101691
M. Cerny10
WOct 11 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.25118871M. Cerny1.5771111113LOct 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky2.101111113M. Cerny1.659790WOct 8 · 12:50J. Kocab2.63961151M. Cerny1.4411117113WOct 8 · 11:50M. Cerny1.2261111113M. Brozek4.00114341LOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky2.251111113M. Cerny1.576760WOct 7 · 17:54M. Cerny1.571111113D. Vesecky2.259990WOct 7 · 17:25M. Cerny1.5712411113D. Vesecky2.251011871LOct 7 · 15:55T. Flicek1.801111143M. Cerny1.9169120LOct 7 · 15:25M. Stusek2.00111194113M. Cerny1.7369111182WOct 7 · 13:54M. Cerny1.671111113V. Nadvornik2.103460
Upcoming Matches
A. Kosacky
Nothing scheduled
M. Cerny
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