TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Martin Cerny 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Martin Cerny @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Martin Cerny at 56.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 57–82 Martin Cerny David Vesecky has won 57 of their 139 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Vesecky beat Cerny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:3156.8%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 3.8pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
57-82 in 139
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 25 in 139, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1627 vs Cerny 1722
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 40% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky -1 · Cerny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.10 / Cerny 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Cerny)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264714
Vesecky2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 61 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Cerny1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 173 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it96% 89 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it84% 126 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky3wins
AwayCerny7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky75%3 of 4
AwayCerny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Vesecky6Cerny4n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S3Vesecky6Cerny4n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S4Vesecky1Cerny6n = 7Cerny took 6 of 7
S5Vesecky1Cerny3n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyCernyV − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.5−2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 650 vs 509 / 87754.2%58%352 / 650 vs 509 / 877Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVesecky 2.10/Cerny 1.65
Miss
What we said
56.8%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Cerny @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Vesecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky331111113M. Cerny196760
LOct 7 · 17:54D. Vesecky279990M. Cerny331111113
LOct 7 · 17:25D. Vesecky361011871M. Cerny3812411113
WOct 7 · 10:55D. Vesecky541261211133M. Cerny5510111013112
LOct 4 · 18:10D. Vesecky386611151M. Cerny4311114173
LOct 4 · 17:25D. Vesecky3021111152M. Cerny50118119113
WOct 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky331111113M. Cerny188640
LOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky3971111462M. Cerny47116811113
LOct 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky34713771M. Cerny44111111113
LSep 25 · 07:25D. Vesecky461141110102M. Cerny48511812123
D. Vesecky10
LOct 8 · 12:20D. Vesecky1.57119711102M. Brozek2.25811111123WOct 8 · 11:20D. Vesecky2.631111113J. Kocab1.448590WOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky2.251111113M. Cerny1.576760LOct 7 · 17:54M. Cerny1.571111113D. Vesecky2.259990LOct 7 · 17:25M. Cerny1.5712411113D. Vesecky2.251011871LOct 7 · 16:25D. Vesecky2.257660M. Stusek1.571111113LOct 7 · 14:55T. Flicek1.80911911113D. Vesecky1.9111811962LOct 7 · 14:23D. Bochnak1.501115113D. Vesecky2.5091360LOct 7 · 12:55D. Vesecky2.38611581D. Bochnak1.5311911113WOct 7 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.731511113V. Nadvornik2.0013950
M. Cerny10
WOct 8 · 12:50J. Kocab2.63961151M. Cerny1.4411117113WOct 8 · 11:50M. Cerny1.2261111113M. Brozek4.00114341LOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky2.251111113M. Cerny1.576760WOct 7 · 17:54M. Cerny1.571111113D. Vesecky2.259990WOct 7 · 17:25M. Cerny1.5712411113D. Vesecky2.251011871LOct 7 · 15:55T. Flicek1.801111143M. Cerny1.9169120LOct 7 · 15:25M. Stusek2.00111194113M. Cerny1.7369111182WOct 7 · 13:54M. Cerny1.671111113V. Nadvornik2.103460WOct 7 · 13:25V. Nadvornik2.2532110M. Cerny1.571111133LOct 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.80113891D. Bochnak1.9171111113
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