TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Brozek vs Adam Kosacky 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131183111151311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeAdam Kosacky to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Adam Kosacky below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 97 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Adam Kosacky at 61.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 42–101 Adam Kosacky Michal Brozek has won 42 of their 143 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2261.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kosacky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
42-101 in 143
Kosacky
Wrong
gap of 59 in 143, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1605 vs Kosacky 1677
Kosacky
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 0% vs Kosacky 40%
Kosacky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 30% vs Kosacky 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -5 · Kosacky -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kosacky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosacky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.25 / Kosacky 1.571
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kosacky)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13267988
Brozek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 66 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back12% 10 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Kosacky1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 55 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it84% 47 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek4wins
AwayKosacky6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKosacky leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek75%3 of 4
AwayKosacky83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Kosacky6n = 10Kosacky took 6 of 10
S2Brozek6Kosacky4n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S3Brozek6Kosacky4n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S4Brozek2Kosacky3n = 5Kosacky took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekKosackyB − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.035.6−2.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekKosackyBasisWin rate · lifetime521 / 1009 vs 335 / 59851.6%56%521 / 1009 vs 335 / 598Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosackyBrozek 2.25/Kosacky 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Kosacky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 18:55M. Brozek341112113A. Kosacky2361070
LOct 3 · 18:55M. Brozek31911831A. Kosacky4211911113
LOct 2 · 12:50M. Brozek205780A. Kosacky331111113
WSep 26 · 20:25M. Brozek4591311123A. Kosacky3411112101
WSep 22 · 16:25M. Brozek331111113A. Kosacky199550
LJun 7 · 15:25M. Brozek207490A. Kosacky331111113
LJun 4 · 18:55M. Brozek321071141A. Kosacky4312119113
WMay 28 · 10:50M. Brozek331111113A. Kosacky217770
LMay 10 · 21:55M. Brozek4612158562A. Kosacky5610131111113
LMay 10 · 20:50M. Brozek3624121172A. Kosacky521111109113
M. Brozek10
WOct 9 · 22:03M. Brozek2.5011121111113A. Kosacky1.5071413292LOct 9 · 19:55P. Benes1.8081111113M. Brozek1.91119491LOct 9 · 19:25M. Kulisek1.911113113M. Brozek1.8051170LOct 8 · 17:35M. Brozek2.7571111542J. Benak1.40117811113LOct 8 · 16:50P. Benes1.91711812113M. Brozek1.80118111092LOct 8 · 15:50M. Brozek1.533660P. Dvorak2.381111113WOct 8 · 14:20J. Benak1.5061171592M. Brozek2.501191113113WOct 8 · 13:25J. Kocab1.408520M. Brozek2.751111113WOct 8 · 12:20D. Vesecky1.57119711102M. Brozek2.25811111123LOct 8 · 11:50M. Cerny1.2261111113M. Brozek4.00114341
A. Kosacky10
LOct 9 · 22:03M. Brozek2.5011121111113A. Kosacky1.5071413292LOct 9 · 20:25A. Kosacky1.44911136102M. Kulisek2.631171111123LOct 9 · 18:55P. Benes2.1071311113A. Kosacky1.671111551LOct 9 · 10:34V. Nadvornik1.7391218113A. Kosacky2.0011101691WOct 9 · 08:55J. Benak1.831111111192A. Kosacky1.83131389113WOct 9 · 08:25J. Kocab2.5091180A. Kosacky1.501113113LOct 9 · 07:25A. Kosacky2.007940V. Nadvornik1.731111113WOct 4 · 21:55A. Kosacky1.3611511113O. Fiklik3.00911581LOct 4 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.368680M. Kulisek3.001111113WOct 4 · 19:55A. Kosacky1.3612911113O. Fiklik3.001011571
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