TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Kocab vs Adam Kosacky 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Kosacky to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Adam Kosacky @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Adam Kosacky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Adam Kosacky at 62.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 4–5 Adam Kosacky Jan Kocab has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 07:18Sent to Pro: Adam Kosacky @ 1.50 · Won
62.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kosacky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1698 vs Kosacky 1688
Kocab
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 40% vs Kosacky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 50% vs Kosacky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +1 · Kosacky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kosacky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosacky form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 2.50 / Kosacky 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kosacky)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266672
Kocab2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 31 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Kosacky1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 55 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it84% 47 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKocab4wins
AwayKosacky5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKosacky leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKosacky71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab2Kosacky7n = 9Kosacky took 7 of 9
S2Kocab5Kosacky4n = 9Kocab took 5 of 9
S3Kocab2Kosacky7n = 9Kosacky took 7 of 9
S4Kocab4Kosacky0n = 4Kocab took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricKocabKosackyKocab − KosackyBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match35.936.1−0.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabKosackyBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 294 vs 335 / 59647.6%56.2%140 / 294 vs 335 / 596Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosackyKocab 2.50/Kosacky 1.50
Hit
What we said
62.9%
Kosacky · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Adam Kosacky @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
0–3
Kosacky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 7 · 18:30J. Kocab46111111133A. Kosacky291305111
LJun 7 · 15:55J. Kocab217680A. Kosacky331111113
LJun 4 · 20:25J. Kocab2371060A. Kosacky341112113
LMar 30 · 15:55J. Kocab591011915142A. Kosacky601281113163
WJan 7 · 15:55J. Kocab4411119133A. Kosacky378711111
LDec 23 · 19:25J. Kocab2681440A. Kosacky381116113
WDec 23 · 17:55J. Kocab48911611113A. Kosacky4011411682
LDec 10 · 17:55J. Kocab197660A. Kosacky331111113
WNov 8 · 07:55J. Kocab371511113A. Kosacky2113530
J. Kocab10
WOct 9 · 06:55J. Benak1.834790J. Kocab1.831111113LOct 8 · 13:25J. Kocab1.408520M. Brozek2.751111113LOct 8 · 12:50J. Kocab2.63961151M. Cerny1.4411117113LOct 8 · 11:20D. Vesecky2.631111113J. Kocab1.448590WOct 8 · 10:50M. Brozek2.6361480J. Kocab1.441116113LOct 4 · 14:25P. Dvorak1.661211123J. Kocab2.10109100LOct 4 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.801111811113J. Kocab1.9166111382WOct 4 · 12:25V. Nadvornik2.257580J. Kocab1.571111113WOct 4 · 11:25J. Kocab1.3611111110113J. Benak3.0071381282WOct 2 · 10:40J. Kocab1.73111195113J. Benak2.0044111172
A. Kosacky10
LOct 9 · 07:25A. Kosacky2.007940V. Nadvornik1.731111113WOct 4 · 21:55A. Kosacky1.3611511113O. Fiklik3.00911581LOct 4 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.368680M. Kulisek3.001111113WOct 4 · 19:55A. Kosacky1.3612911113O. Fiklik3.001011571LOct 4 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.5761070M. Brozek2.251112113WOct 3 · 22:29A. Kosacky1.441511911113M. Kulisek2.6317911942WOct 3 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.361111113O. Fiklik3.007940WOct 3 · 19:55A. Kosacky1.401111113M. Kulisek2.754790WOct 3 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.8011911113M. Brozek1.91911831LOct 2 · 13:48A. Kosacky1.408560O. Fiklik2.751111113
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