TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Benak vs Adam Kosacky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131113118119911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:50 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kosacky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Benak above · Adam Kosacky below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 107 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Adam Kosacky at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 9–8 Adam Kosacky Adam Kosacky has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kosacky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1660 vs Kosacky 1703
Kosacky
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 20% vs Kosacky 60%
Kosacky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 30% vs Kosacky 70%
Kosacky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak -2 · Kosacky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kosacky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.833 / Kosacky 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kosacky)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13266662
Benak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Kosacky1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak4wins
AwayKosacky6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosacky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak50%3 of 6
AwayKosacky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak6Kosacky4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S2Benak6Kosacky4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S3Benak4Kosacky6n = 10Kosacky took 6 of 10
S4Benak3Kosacky5n = 8Kosacky took 5 of 8
S5Benak1Kosacky3n = 4Kosacky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakKosackyB − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.1+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakKosackyBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 188 vs 336 / 59754.8%56.3%103 / 188 vs 336 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosackyBenak 1.83/Kosacky 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kosacky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kosacky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 26 · 15:55J. Benak166550A. Kosacky331111113
WApr 27 · 10:30J. Benak4111118113A. Kosacky35991161
LApr 27 · 08:55J. Benak32291381A. Kosacky44111111113
WApr 16 · 16:50J. Benak371111153A. Kosacky2676130
LMar 11 · 18:54J. Benak49111113862A. Kosacky50581511113
LMar 11 · 16:55J. Benak531111101292A. Kosacky43331214113
LFeb 26 · 18:25J. Benak34118691A. Kosacky3961111113
WFeb 12 · 15:35J. Benak558151110113A. Kosacky50111361282
LFeb 12 · 12:25J. Benak5389171362A. Kosacky5911111511113
WFeb 12 · 11:35J. Benak4211118123A. Kosacky326511101
J. Benak10
WOct 9 · 10:03J. Kocab1.6741250J. Benak2.101114113LOct 9 · 07:55J. Benak1.7381181162V. Nadvornik2.00115114113LOct 9 · 06:55J. Benak1.834790J. Kocab1.831111113WOct 8 · 17:35M. Brozek2.7571111542J. Benak1.40117811113LOct 8 · 16:20J. Benak2.108870P. Dvorak1.671111113LOct 8 · 15:20J. Benak1.67691261P. Benes2.10111110113LOct 8 · 14:20J. Benak1.5061171592M. Brozek2.501191113113WOct 4 · 13:55J. Benak1.611111113V. Nadvornik2.209580WOct 4 · 13:25J. Benak2.1011711113V. Nadvornik1.67711851LOct 4 · 11:55P. Dvorak1.6711911113J. Benak2.10811991
A. Kosacky10
LOct 9 · 10:34V. Nadvornik1.7391218113A. Kosacky2.0011101691WOct 9 · 08:25J. Kocab2.5091180A. Kosacky1.501113113LOct 9 · 07:25A. Kosacky2.007940V. Nadvornik1.731111113WOct 4 · 21:55A. Kosacky1.3611511113O. Fiklik3.00911581LOct 4 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.368680M. Kulisek3.001111113WOct 4 · 19:55A. Kosacky1.3612911113O. Fiklik3.001011571LOct 4 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.5761070M. Brozek2.251112113WOct 3 · 22:29A. Kosacky1.441511911113M. Kulisek2.6317911942WOct 3 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.361111113O. Fiklik3.007940WOct 3 · 19:55A. Kosacky1.401111113M. Kulisek2.754790
Upcoming Matches
J. Benak
Nothing scheduled
A. Kosacky
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