Pavel Benes vs Michal Brozek 0-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 8 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Pavel Benes

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 7

Form at publish

9–1Last 10Won last 7

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

311911211––––

Michal Brozek

Away

1.90

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:17 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%

Graded at full time

Pavel Benes to win

54.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPavel Benes above · Michal Brozek below

Set 1 · 3-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 2-11

Point 47 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Pavel Benes at 54.6%

47 points played in total.

H2H Pavel Benes 37–26 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 26 of their 63 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Benes

Benes 1.80/Brozek 1.90

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.6%

Benes · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Brozek won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 22:17

54.6%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.0pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Benes

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

37-26 in 63

Benes

Wrong

gap of 11 in 63, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Benes 1776 vs Brozek 1632

Benes

Wrong

both rated, 144 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Benes 100% vs Brozek 60%

Benes

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Benes 90% vs Brozek 50%

Benes

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Benes +7 · Brozek +2

Benes

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Benes: form 100%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Brozek 1.90

Signal prob.55% / 45%

Edge (Benes)-1.0pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Benes beat Brozek 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBenes7wins

AwayBrozek3wins

6 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBenes66.7%4 of 6

AwayBrozek25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Benes6Brozek4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10

S2Benes5Brozek5n = 10split evenly

S3Benes4Brozek6n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10

S4Benes7Brozek3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10

S5Benes4Brozek2n = 6Benes took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricBenesBrozekBenes − BrozekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.644.0+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBenesBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 538 vs 521 / 100348.9%51.9%263 / 538 vs 521 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match

TT Cup · #13287010

Benes1.80

90%won 9 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 7

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite58% won 82 of 142

Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42

Up 1–0, closes it77% 53 of 69

Brozek1.90

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog40% won 68 of 171

Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 83

Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44

Pavel Benes vs Michal Brozek 0-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Pavel Benes vs Michal Brozek 0-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.