Laurent Lasota vs Ales Drozd 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Laurent Lasota

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1113118119211611

Ales Drozd

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:37 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%

Graded at full time

Laurent Lasota to win

56.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingLaurent Lasota above · Ales Drozd below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 2-11

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 93 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Laurent Lasota at 56.1%

93 points played in total.

H2H Laurent Lasota 4–1 Ales Drozd Ales Drozd has won 1 of their 5 meetings.

Last 5 · 4–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Lasota

Lasota 1.57/Drozd 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.1%

Lasota · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Drozd won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 07:37

56.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 7.6pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Lasota

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-1 in 5

Lasota

Wrong

gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lasota 1402 vs Drozd 1428

Drozd

Correct

both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lasota 20% vs Drozd 40%

Drozd

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lasota 20% vs Drozd 40%

Drozd

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Lasota -2 · Drozd -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Lasota) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Lasota: form 20%, the price implies 64%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLasota 1.571 / Drozd 2.25

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Lasota)-7.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 5 meetings

HomeLasota4wins

AwayDrozd1wins

2 of 5 to a deciderLasota leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLasota75%3 of 4

AwayDrozdn = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lasota4Drozd1n = 5Lasota took 4 of 5

S2Lasota3Drozd2n = 5Lasota took 3 of 5

S3Lasota5Drozd0n = 5Lasota took 5 of 5

S4Lasota1Drozd2n = 3Drozd took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home240%

3–1Four sets, home120%

3–2Decider, home120%

2–3Decider, away120%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 5 meetings

MetricLasotaDrozdL − DBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.632.6+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLasotaDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 320 vs 152 / 29747.5%51.2%152 / 320 vs 152 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.8per match

TT Cup · #13281652

Lasota1.57

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite50% won 50 of 101

Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19

Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42

Drozd2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog47% won 27 of 57

Down 0–1, comes back33% 11 of 33

Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12

Laurent Lasota vs Ales Drozd 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Laurent Lasota vs Ales Drozd 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.