TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Theodor vs Laurent Lasota 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Filip Theodor at 58.6%
53 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 2–1 Laurent Lasota Laurent Lasota has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1258.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1561 vs Lasota 1438
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 80% vs Lasota 20%
Theodor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 70% vs Lasota 30%
Theodor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +1 · Lasota -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Theodor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.666 / Lasota 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Theodor)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263488
Theodor1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite42% won 13 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Lasota2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 46 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTheodor2wins
AwayLasota1wins
Theodor leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor2Lasota1n = 3Theodor took 2 of 3
S2Theodor2Lasota1n = 3Theodor took 2 of 3
S3Theodor1Lasota2n = 3Lasota took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricTheodorLasotaT − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match32.031.7+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 199 vs 151 / 31449.8%48.1%99 / 199 vs 151 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.67/Lasota 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 21:05F. Theodor331111113L. Lasota229760
LOct 5 · 20:10F. Theodor228770L. Lasota331111113
WSep 29 · 18:45F. Theodor4111125133L. Lasota4081011111
F. Theodor10
WOct 5 · 21:05L. Lasota1.739760F. Theodor2.001111113LOct 5 · 20:10F. Theodor1.838770L. Lasota1.831111113WOct 5 · 18:40P. Vinansky1.575760F. Theodor2.251111113WOct 5 · 18:10D. Branny1.6711611662F. Theodor2.10311811113WSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113LSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121WSep 30 · 17:45F. Theodor1.831111113K. Zeman1.835470WSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133
L. Lasota10
LOct 8 · 18:45D. Branny1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20124891LOct 7 · 08:44L. Lasota1.836280D. Pawlik1.831111113WOct 7 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.57101290L. Lasota2.251214113LOct 7 · 07:15L. Lasota1.8381111592L. Kantor1.83115811113LOct 7 · 05:45T. Kindl1.53111296113L. Lasota2.38710111182LOct 5 · 21:05L. Lasota1.739760F. Theodor2.001111113WOct 5 · 20:10F. Theodor1.838770L. Lasota1.831111113WOct 5 · 19:10L. Lasota2.25121168113D. Branny1.57106111182LOct 5 · 17:40P. Vinansky1.301111133L. Lasota3.4044110LOct 2 · 08:50L. Lasota1.835111191R. Sedlacek1.8311613113
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