TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Theodor vs Laurent Lasota 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Filip Theodor at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 1–0 Laurent Lasota Laurent Lasota has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lasota
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1569 vs Lasota 1445
Theodor
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 80% vs Lasota 40%
Theodor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 80% vs Lasota 30%
Theodor
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +3 · Lasota +1
Theodor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Theodor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.833 / Lasota 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Theodor)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13249359
Theodor1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Lasota1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTheodor1wins
AwayLasota0wins
Theodor leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTheodorLasotaT − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.040.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 197 vs 149 / 30849.8%48.4%98 / 197 vs 149 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.83/Lasota 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lasota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 29 · 18:45F. Theodor4111125133L. Lasota4081011111
F. Theodor10
WOct 5 · 21:05L. Lasota1.739760F. Theodor2.001111113WOct 5 · 18:40P. Vinansky1.575760F. Theodor2.251111113WOct 5 · 18:10D. Branny1.6711611662F. Theodor2.10311811113WSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113LSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121WSep 30 · 17:45F. Theodor1.831111113K. Zeman1.835470WSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133WSep 29 · 18:45L. Lasota1.7381011111F. Theodor2.0011125133
L. Lasota10
LOct 5 · 21:05L. Lasota1.739760F. Theodor2.001111113WOct 5 · 19:10L. Lasota2.25121168113D. Branny1.57106111182LOct 5 · 17:40P. Vinansky1.301111133L. Lasota3.4044110LOct 2 · 08:50L. Lasota1.835111191R. Sedlacek1.8311613113LOct 2 · 08:15L. Lasota2.0010950M. Raska1.731211113WOct 2 · 06:45R. Sedlacek1.831155101L. Lasota1.8361111123WOct 2 · 06:15E. Precek1.6111101151L. Lasota2.2041213113LSep 30 · 20:45D. Osvald1.6111612113L. Lasota2.209111031LSep 30 · 19:40L. Lasota2.001016731D. Branny1.73121411113LSep 29 · 18:45L. Lasota1.7381011111F. Theodor2.0011125133
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