TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Branny vs Filip Theodor 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113611118611611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Branny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Branny above · Filip Theodor below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Daniel Branny at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Branny 12–8 Filip Theodor Filip Theodor has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 18:0454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Branny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Branny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Branny 1512 vs Theodor 1543
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Branny 20% vs Theodor 80%
Theodor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Branny 50% vs Theodor 80%
Theodor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Branny -2 · Theodor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Branny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBranny 1.666 / Theodor 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Theodor)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247166
Branny1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 67 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 42 of 54
Theodor2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 31 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBranny8wins
AwayTheodor2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBranny leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBranny66.7%4 of 6
AwayTheodor0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Branny6Theodor4n = 10Branny took 6 of 10
S2Branny4Theodor6n = 10Theodor took 6 of 10
S3Branny6Theodor4n = 10Branny took 6 of 10
S4Branny5Theodor4n = 9Branny took 5 of 9
S5Branny5Theodor0n = 5Branny took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrannyTheodorB − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.237.9+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrannyTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 367 vs 96 / 19552%49.2%191 / 367 vs 96 / 195Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorBranny 1.67/Theodor 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Branny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 18:15D. Branny3911711101F. Theodor4041113123
WAug 6 · 13:45D. Branny50118911113F. Theodor4081111552
WAug 5 · 19:15D. Branny331111113F. Theodor175750
WJul 27 · 20:33D. Branny47771111113F. Theodor3611117342
WJul 27 · 18:10D. Branny4291111113F. Theodor25115451
WJun 18 · 19:15D. Branny3911413113F. Theodor387111191
LApr 27 · 16:50D. Branny401111991F. Theodor4381311113
WApr 27 · 14:45D. Branny48811117113F. Theodor4611691192
WApr 21 · 20:34D. Branny549121111113F. Theodor4511148572
WApr 21 · 17:40D. Branny50111178133F. Theodor49971111112
D. Branny10
WOct 5 · 19:40P. Vinansky1.538960D. Branny2.381111113LOct 5 · 19:10L. Lasota2.25121168113D. Branny1.57106111182LOct 4 · 20:40D. Branny1.73411661A. Cizek2.0011711113LOct 4 · 20:10R. Solle1.911111113D. Branny1.809890WOct 4 · 19:10D. Branny1.571113113A. Cizek2.2571170LOct 4 · 17:40I. Heuman1.6121111123D. Branny2.201194101LSep 30 · 21:15J. Przybyla1.8311111110113D. Branny1.8379131292WSep 30 · 19:40L. Lasota2.001016731D. Branny1.73121411113LSep 30 · 19:10J. Przybyla2.00411711123D. Branny1.73116111102WSep 30 · 18:10D. Branny1.7381111113D. Osvald2.00113991
F. Theodor10
WOct 5 · 18:40P. Vinansky1.575760F. Theodor2.251111113WSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113LSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121WSep 30 · 17:45F. Theodor1.831111113K. Zeman1.835470WSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133WSep 29 · 18:45L. Lasota1.7381011111F. Theodor2.0011125133WSep 29 · 18:15D. Branny1.6111711101F. Theodor2.2041113123WSep 23 · 21:20F. Theodor2.001111123K. Zeman1.7337100
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