TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Vinansky vs Filip Theodor 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711611––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Vinansky above · Filip Theodor below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 51 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Pavel Vinansky at 58.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Vinansky 1–0 Filip Theodor Filip Theodor has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3858.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vinansky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vinansky 1626 vs Theodor 1553
Vinansky
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinansky 80% vs Theodor 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinansky 80% vs Theodor 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinansky +3 · Theodor +2
Vinansky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vinansky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinansky 1.571 / Theodor 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vinansky)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13249336
Vinansky1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite75% won 41 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Theodor2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 31 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVinansky1wins
AwayTheodor0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderVinansky leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVinanskyTheodorV − TBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match51.049.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinanskyTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 125 vs 97 / 19660.8%49.5%76 / 125 vs 97 / 196Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyVinansky 1.57/Theodor 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 10 · 13:45P. Vinansky51117913113F. Theodor49811111182
P. Vinansky10
LOct 5 · 19:40P. Vinansky1.538960D. Branny2.381111113WOct 5 · 17:40P. Vinansky1.301111133L. Lasota3.4044110WSep 28 · 13:10J. Volny2.2568121172P. Vinansky1.571111108113WSep 28 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.531111113D. Vitasek2.388960LSep 28 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.36661191J. Volny3.0011116113WSep 28 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.401111113L. Lasota2.755570WSep 26 · 13:15A. Cizek1.931111211102P. Vinansky1.77132118123LSep 26 · 11:45A. Cizek2.75511811113P. Vinansky1.4011611642WSep 26 · 11:15J. Volny2.255580P. Vinansky1.571111113WSep 26 · 10:15P. Vinansky1.5015611113T. Lysek2.501311361
F. Theodor10
WOct 5 · 18:10D. Branny1.6711611662F. Theodor2.10311811113WSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113LSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121WSep 30 · 17:45F. Theodor1.831111113K. Zeman1.835470WSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133WSep 29 · 18:45L. Lasota1.7381011111F. Theodor2.0011125133WSep 29 · 18:15D. Branny1.6111711101F. Theodor2.2041113123WSep 23 · 21:20F. Theodor2.001111123K. Zeman1.7337100
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