Anton Molochko vs Vasily Verbyany 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Anton Molochko

Home

1.62

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

15131412811119––

Vasily Verbyany

Away

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Anton Molochko to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Vasily Verbyany below

Set 1 · 15-13

Set 2 · 14-12

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 93 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Anton Molochko at 58.9%

93 points played in total.

H2H Anton Molochko 164–82 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 82 of their 246 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Molochko

Molochko 1.61/Verbyany 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.9%

Molochko · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Molochko won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 11:49

58.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Molochko

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

164-82 in 246

Molochko

Correct

gap of 82 in 246, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Molochko 1993 vs Verbyany 1956

Molochko

Correct

both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Molochko 40% vs Verbyany 60%

Verbyany

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Molochko 50% vs Verbyany 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Molochko -2 · Verbyany +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Molochko) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Verbyany: form 60%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMolochko 1.615 / Verbyany 2.20

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Molochko)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMolochko9wins

AwayVerbyany1wins

2 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMolochko100%6 of 6

AwayVerbyany25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10

S2Molochko7Verbyany3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10

S3Molochko9Verbyany1n = 10Molochko took 9 of 10

S4Molochko4Verbyany3n = 7Molochko took 4 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMolochkoVerbyanyM − VBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.630.7+9.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMolochkoVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 902 vs 351 / 83257.3%42.2%517 / 902 vs 351 / 832Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281565

Molochko1.61

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite61% won 138 of 227

Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69

Up 1–0, closes it85% 102 of 120

Verbyany2.20

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog37% won 81 of 218

Down 0–1, comes back20% 26 of 130

Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72

Anton Molochko vs Vasily Verbyany 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Anton Molochko vs Vasily Verbyany 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.