TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Nazar Danyliuk vs Anton Molochko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118117––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 59.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 184–160 Anton Molochko Anton Molochko has won 160 of their 344 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5359.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
184-160 in 344
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 24 in 344, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2129 vs Molochko 2013
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 80% vs Molochko 60%
Danyliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 70% vs Molochko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +3 · Molochko -1
Danyliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Danyliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.666 / Molochko 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Danyliuk)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13277235
Danyliuk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 192 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it95% 97 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it81% 140 of 173
Molochko2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 53 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk7wins
AwayMolochko3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayMolochko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk6Molochko4n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S2Danyliuk7Molochko3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S3Danyliuk6Molochko4n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S4Danyliuk3Molochko5n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5Danyliuk4Molochko2n = 6Danyliuk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukMolochkoD − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.739.9+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime588 / 959 vs 515 / 89761.3%57.4%588 / 959 vs 515 / 897Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.67/Molochko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 10:25N. Danyliuk44116115113A. Molochko4151181162
LOct 8 · 17:44N. Danyliuk35811791A. Molochko4011711113
LOct 8 · 13:25N. Danyliuk531210813102A. Molochko5610121111123
WOct 6 · 06:05N. Danyliuk47111177113A. Molochko4166111172
WOct 5 · 15:35N. Danyliuk511141114113A. Molochko50131181262
WSep 29 · 04:25N. Danyliuk331111113A. Molochko207670
WSep 28 · 15:25N. Danyliuk331111113A. Molochko269980
LSep 27 · 23:45N. Danyliuk4781211882A. Molochko511110811113
WSep 23 · 05:05N. Danyliuk50131187113A. Molochko41112111162
WSep 22 · 16:35N. Danyliuk44111111113A. Molochko33138931
N. Danyliuk10
WOct 9 · 10:25N. Danyliuk1.53116115113A. Molochko2.3851181162WOct 9 · 08:55N. Danyliuk1.50111110113V. Verbyany2.50851271WOct 9 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.2081111113S. Rak4.33115981LOct 9 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.331158131B. Kohut3.2591111153WOct 9 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.3011118143D. Zeniuk3.409711121LOct 8 · 17:44A. Molochko2.0011711113N. Danyliuk1.73811791WOct 8 · 16:25V. Verbyany2.6368111192N. Danyliuk1.44111196113WOct 8 · 14:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258960LOct 8 · 13:25N. Danyliuk1.531210813102A. Molochko2.3810121111123WOct 8 · 11:55N. Danyliuk1.401112113S. Rak2.7561040
A. Molochko10
LOct 9 · 10:25N. Danyliuk1.53116115113A. Molochko2.3851181162WOct 9 · 09:25A. Molochko1.281111123S. Rak3.5033100WOct 9 · 08:25A. Molochko2.20101111113D. Zeniuk1.61129791WOct 9 · 06:55A. Molochko1.73111298113V. Verbyany2.00610111182LOct 9 · 04:55A. Molochko1.443370B. Kohut2.631111113WOct 8 · 17:44A. Molochko2.0011711113N. Danyliuk1.73811791WOct 8 · 15:25V. Verbyany2.0031380A. Molochko1.731115113WOct 8 · 14:25A. Molochko1.441111113S. Rak2.639830WOct 8 · 13:25N. Danyliuk1.531210813102A. Molochko2.3810121111123WOct 8 · 12:25A. Molochko1.5371411143B. Kohut2.3811127121
Upcoming Matches
N. Danyliuk
Oct 11 · 22:30N. Danyliuk1.07A. Zeniuk7.50—Oct 11 · 23:30N. Danyliuk1.36D. Zeniuk3.00—Oct 12 · 00:30N. Danyliuk1.28B. Kohut3.50—Oct 12 · 02:30N. Danyliuk1.57V. Verbyany2.25—Oct 12 · 13:05N. Danyliuk1.36D. Zeniuk3.00—Oct 12 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.28B. Kohut3.50—Oct 12 · 15:35N. Danyliuk1.07A. Zeniuk7.50—Oct 12 · 18:35N. Danyliuk1.57V. Verbyany2.25—
A. Molochko
Oct 11 · 22:00A. Molochko1.67V. Verbyany2.10—Oct 11 · 23:00A. Molochko1.44B. Kohut2.63—Oct 12 · 01:00A. Molochko1.25A. Zeniuk3.75—Oct 12 · 03:00A. Molochko2.00D. Zeniuk1.73—Oct 12 · 12:05A. Molochko1.67V. Verbyany2.10—Oct 12 · 13:35A. Molochko1.20A. Zeniuk4.33—Oct 12 · 15:05A. Molochko2.00D. Zeniuk1.73—Oct 12 · 18:05A. Molochko1.36B. Kohut3.00—
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